Talcum Powder probably has the most data-based projection on a possible release date. The
last one predicted 3rd Dec.
I'm just wondering what the reaction is going to be if the release slips to the 12th or later. At that time this update will have taken longer than v.130, so all the predictions of things like first sex being 10 years away, Dylan's chance with Sophia being 20 years away, they all shift to an
even longer timeframe.
Especially since there are some rumblings of the game being abandoned in around 3-4 years.
In the short-term I don't think anything will diminish the growth of his Patreon page. Right now it seems that the game is big enough to be a self-sustaining machine. The game is big enough that it has reach, but not so big that everyone has jumped on it at once and moved on. It also seems to be the kind of game to endear itself to a very loyal audience.
Long-term I don't think this is sustainable at all. If these development cycles continue to take 5+ months, then eventually that's going to fester with even the loyal patrons. If the story's pacing does not also drastically improve then I think people are going to get fed up. But I think that's going to take some time. In the end, if this game is never finished, it's going to die slowly. It will be something like Milfy City, gradually the releases will be further apart, the Dev will communicate less and less as his passion for the game fades, resulting in diminishing positive feedback and a slow-down in growth. Eventually the slow-down turns into an actual shrinking user base. At the same time the user base begins to decline, the dev's already faltering interest in the game takes a nosedive as he sees diminishing returns, so either development cycles stretch on even longer or the releases are less ambitious and contain less content than earlier updates. Knowing L&P, I can't see him responding by increasing his productivity and rushing development, I think instead he'll just gradually lose interest. Eventually, some time around 2024 the game is going to go an entire 12-month stretch without an update (or maybe he'll just release some small DLCs). The death spiral will only gain momentum at that point.
But again, short-term I don't think 99% of his patrons will care if v0.150 takes longer than .130. I think they're along for the ride and for now he'll continue to experience growth. If this game is going to run into trouble it's going to be sometime 2023 as "new" patrons realize that updates are taking forever.
I could be wrong about this, but is the horseback riding event with Patricia an entire day? For some reason I have it in my head that Sophia, Patricia, and families, will be spending the entire day together at the ranch. If that's true, and if L&P isn't planning on changing that, I think that could be a really tough series of updates for him. I'm not super creative, but I have done some creative writing and I have been around creative people, and I've been mulling over the idea that being stuck at a ranch for (most) of a playable day could be really dull for L&P. If you look at his updates, they're full of difference scenes with different characters, doing different things. If I'm correct and the entire day is centered around the ranch, Patricia, and the family, I wonder if that will become sorta dull for L&P. If it does become dull, then we may see development slow even more as he has to really force himself to work on the game.
Now, I could be totally wrong about the ranch, and obviously I want to see this game completed. But if I'm right about the ranch then I can see it being the beginning of the end. That whole day could end up taking him two years to complete. I don't think the game could survive that because even the fans would probably be bored of it by then.
