Everything is speculation on both sides when it comes to L&P. Remember, this update was supposed to be a full update when he started it, but he changed the model after it began, which is likely why he inflated this event arc, since it's supposedly the last event for the museum guys in AWAM.
It was also stated that this was supposed to be a short update, but the way everything is progressing, it's not going to be brief, since he had to divide it into two parts now. It should be evident that 0.230b will result in more CS/renders than 0.230a.
But the split change rate was a big clue.
Edit: He also split the update unequally, so he could release an update before December, which is likely because he has only released two updates this year so far and giving the appearance that this seems like a quick update, but in reality, the pace is slower.
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