There is definitely an argument that successful teams are more likely to have successful second games. But also, that the devs learned some lessons along the way.
having said that, I think that most players will state that they're more likely to follow and support a game that launches as a *game*, not a demo. You want them to go "I love that game", not "shows some promise, I'll check it out in a few updates".
Yeah, some don't learn the easy wayEven if someone sees lessons learned by an already successful developer, it doesn't mean they actually see it. Some of those lessons have to be learned the hard way for someone (especially a newer developer) to actually understand them.