Is It a Team (Patreon Top 50 Edition)

[DaClown]

Statistics taken from

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#1 Dark Cookie. Team.
#2 Redamz. Claimed solo dev; status indeterminate due to secrecy surrounding development.
#3 Meshed VR. Language used in promotional behavior indicates a team based on collective pronouns.
#4 Project Helius. Team. Advertised as a studio.
#5 TURBODRIVER.

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#6 NLT. Solo dev with at least volunteers (3 QA people credited in Lust Epidemic)
#7 Adeptus Steve. Team.
#8 DrPinkCake. Solo Dev; extensive social media support network.
#9 Fenoxo and co. Team. See also Salamander Studios
#10 ICSTOR. Team.

Top 10 statistics: 6/10 are teams; 2 or 3 are ambiguous; 3 are pseudo-solo-devs or solo devs.

#11 DerelictHelmsman. Solo Dev.
#12 Savin. Team. See also Salamander Studios.
#13 MITY. Collective pronoun usage indicates team.
#14 Majalis Duo. Team.
#15 Palmer. Collective pronoun usage indicates team.
#16

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.
#17 ManlyMarco. Solo Dev part of a collective of modders.
#18 Pink Tea Games. Solo Dev.
#19 Ghosthug Games. Team.
#20 Oni. Solo-dev.
#21 Runey. Fulltime Solo-dev. 3800 Patrons; gross patreon income estimated between 8K$/month and 29K$/month; last recorded data indicates around 7.32$ per patron.
#22 Uberpie. Team.
#23 MrDots Games. Team.
#24 LewdLab. Solo Dev.
#25 Gunsmoke Games. Collective and third person pronouns indicate team.
#26 Andrealphus Games. Team.
#27 Leave2gether. Team
#28 Anduo Games. Team
#29 Nisa K. Solo-dev but part of the Sims modding collective that includes TURBODRIVER.
#30 Fek. Solo-dev. Part of the Furry community.
#31 The Future Fragments Team
#32 PhillyGames. Solo-Dev probably.
#33 Bo Wei. Appears to be part of a duo, including Koda (#776).
#34 The Dystopian Project. Team.
#35 Crushstation. Collective pronouns indicate team.
#36 Hyao. Solo-Dev
#37 Arcgames. Promised to hire a team and reached that goal.
#38 The Tribe (LOK TEAM)
#39 Sad Crab Company. Team.
#40 VAULTPLAY DevTeam
#41 CaptainHardcore AKA AntiZero. Solo-Dev likely contracts, has freelancers, or volunteers.
#42 DarkSilver aka Sand Lust Games. Team.
#43 NumericGazer AKA Under the Witch Project. Solo Dev.
#44 LordArioch of Team Venus Noire.
#45 Braindrop. Solo-Dev.
#46 SLimGames. Solo-Dev.
#47 Elana Champion of Lust dev team.
#48 Dudedle Studio AKA kemocoliseum. Team.
#49 Jikei & Phreeoni. Team.
#50 The Echo Project. Collective nouns indicate a team.

19 out of the top 11 to 50 are positively identified as teams.
8 out of the top 11 to 50 are ambiguously identified such that they are either teams based on collective noun usage, part of a distributed development collective, or their hiring status of a team is ambiguous on publicly facing posts.
14 out of the top 11 to 50 are positively identified as solo-devs with a few having status ambiguous.

50% of the top 50 Patreons are substantially represented by positively identified teams.
70% are likely teams with ambiguous public facing marketing materials.
34% are Solo-devs and almost all solo-devs are not in the Top 10 though the distribution is about equal across the top 50 and top 10: approximately 1/3rd.

One of the great secrets of the Web 2.0 era between 2000 and 2010 is that the Ivy League dudes like Zuckerberg outsourced their day jobs or homework to international work forces. I consider this when I look at solo dev projects which list no credits other than themselves and have a sizeable project.

 

[Luderos]

That's a nice breakdown, though I think the really relevant thing (at least to the prior discussion) is whether or not they started as teams (or at least, were they teams before they were successful). If someone starts as a team and succeedes because of that, it's quite different than someone who succeedes solo and then hires people with his mountain of money.

 

[RanliLabz]

Assuming this is accurate, it is worth noting that:

Of the 4 games begun in 2019, 3 are certified solo-devs (Braindrop, AntiZero, Hyao) and one is uncertain (Arc).
[75-100%]

Of the 10 games begun in 2018, 6 are certified solo-devs (DrPinkCake, ManlyMarco, Runey, Nisa K., NumericGazer, SLimGames) and 4 are teams (Ghosthug, Uberpie, Anduo, Jikei)
[60%]

 

[DaClown]

That's a nice breakdown, though I think the really relevant thing (at least to the prior discussion) is whether or not they started as teams (or at least, were they teams before they were successful). If someone starts as a team and succeedes because of that, it's quite different than someone who succeedes solo and then hires people with his mountain of money.

The thing I think is worth paying more attention to is less the "great man" hypothesis and top-down organization and more that many artists have their own Patreons and they form organic collectives.

In the list several I note as being solo-devs but they belong to some kind of collective. Many of the teams if you look into them aggregated their Patreons into the most successful one but started out separate.

The best practice I think is not to eliminate your Patreon because your team's Patreon was wildly successful. Breeding Season is the model of failure here. A bunch of people put their eggs in one basket, and it was mismanaged by one person. It necessitated those people going on to rebuild their brands.

Fenoxo and Savin are the models of crowdfunding success so far here. They occupy two of the 50 top spots. Their joint income for their respective joint developments is somewhere in the vicinity of 60K$/month not including any of the other members of the TITS/COC team.

 

[anne O'nymous]

That's a nice breakdown, though I think the really relevant thing (at least to the prior discussion) is whether or not they started as teams (or at least, were they teams before they were successful).

It's far to be the only information missing for an effective analyze.

By example, Oni is a talented artist before being an average game author. He was already successful on Patreon before he started Rogue like. Then there's the case of Fenoxo, the account being used for both TiTS and the forum/community.
There's also the seniority. Can Braindrop, who started in August 2019, be really compared to Savin, who started in March 2014 ? We know for sure that in one year Savin will still be more or less at this place, but nothing say that Braindrop success isn't a flash in the pan ; or at the opposite that he will raise into the top 10.

And finally, shouldn't all this be weighted by the average pledge ? With more than 27.257 patrons, DarkCookie is undoubtedly successful. But could he really be said "the most successful", when Adeptus Steve earn US$ 30.000 more each month, with 9.035 (three time less) patrons ?

The thing I think is worth paying more attention to is less the "great man" hypothesis and top-down organization and more that many artists have their own Patreons and the form organic collectives.

And once again you're trying to make the reality fit into your expectations. This based on an incomplete analyze of 1,5% of the creators, among who there's the historical figures of the scene.

What you're trying to do is more or less the same that analyzing the stats of NBA players based on the stats of the 92's dream team. Even whoever is the MVP of the season would looks like an idiot.

 

[RanliLabz]

And once again you're trying to make the reality fit into your expectations. This based on an incomplete analyze of 1,5% of the creators, among who there's the historical figures of the scene.

Frankly, iDaClown is using out-and-out statistical manipulation designed to fit a pre-existing hypothesis.

I’ve already demonstrated that a key variable has been omitted - that a significant majority of the top 50 games begun since 2018 are made by solo devs. This hardly fits the hypothesis that teams are the best way to create and swiftly grow adult games. This itself would require further analysis, and there are likely to be many more variables like art style or engine.

 

[anne O'nymous]

I’ve already demonstrated that a key variable has been omitted - that a significant majority of the top 50 games begun since 2018 are made by solo devs. This hardly fits the hypothesis that teams are the best way to create and swiftly grow adult games.

Especially when you see that someone like DrPinkCake is placed above Fenoxo, who have 4 more years of presence on Patreon, and 7 more years of existence (the domain was registered in 2011), and who started with 2k patrons ; only 40 adult games creators have at least this many patrons, and it was their number at the end of their first month.

and there are likely to be many more variables like art style or engine.

This is demonstrated by ICSTOR. When he was using RPG Maker, his best was February 2017, with 1.367 patrons. Then in July 2018, six month after switching to Ren'py for Milfy City, he already doubled this number with 3.147 patrons.

 

[RanliLabz]

Especially when you see that someone like DrPinkCake is placed above Fenoxo, who have 4 more years of presence on Patreon, and 7 more years of existence (the domain was registered in 2011), and who started with 2k patrons ; only 40 adult games creators have at least this many patrons, and it was their number at the end of their first month.

I’ll have to take your word on the numbers - but you’re definitely right to say that unless a game achieves success in it’s first month on Patreon, it will probably never achieve it. It’s the momentum of a successful opening campaign (backed up with quick-fire releases to raise profile) that guarantees this. To my knowledge, no-one has done this better than Braindrop [a solo dev].

This is demonstrated by ICSTOR. When he was using RPG Maker, his best was February 2017, with 1.367 patrons. Then in July 2018, six month after switching to Ren'py for Milfy City, he already doubled this number with 3.147 patrons.

Precisely - whereas most people are happy to play Ren‘py games, there are a significant number who outright reject RPGM. Kinks are also a factor: a pregnancy or gay focused game might see huge early growth from fans of the content - but because their number is limited, it will hit a ceiling within 6-12 months.