You were absolutely correct. Checked the sprites, they match.
View attachment 4948630
The Doli sprite moving towards the southern woods was translucent though, so it doesn't seem to be happening in real time. I don't know when the sprite's sequence is meant to be viewed (it's triggered only once I believe) with respect to the story, so it could've been something Doli'd done in the past. Assuming it's meant to be seen as part of the main story, however, it could be a hint to the player that the real Doli was no longer there, as her "self" was exiting her house and going somewhere unreachable.
Great catch on the wiki there, this could clarify a lot. If it all boils down to which of the two central figures the Nihtlings are following, the disparate attitudes they hold for Deverou isn't random. Allan and Beatrice would probably be among Deverou's loyalists as opposed to Trent, if that is the case. (not me thinking Trent was some nepo baby thinking he had authority thanks to coming from a faculty member's family

)
Yeah it's very much up in the air who the summoner is, given the story's previous developments I wouldn't expect a linear reveal for such a long-kept secret.
What I meant by consensus though was, rather than what we have been able to conclude from the audience's perspective, what do the characters likely perceive? The informant's letter I attached before, for example, was sent to Maven. The entirety of the letters probably isn't enough to construct her outlook, but if she had to point fingers, would it be anyone we already know? She and other intelligence agents in the story are trying to make sense of where Noo's allegiance may be turned, so us guessing who they think is responsible could be an interesting step towards figuring out which party is getting heat on them next.