Not exactly. I say that with the same quality factor, an image with a smaller resolution is, obviously, also smaller in size, this while keeping a better quality level than a compressed version of the same image.
Lets say that you have a 3200x1800 image that need 1Mo, and that down scaling it to 1920x1080 reduce the size to 500 Ko ; which is a reasonable premise (at least in the ratio). Globally you'll remove 1 pixel every 3 pixels, which is enough to reduce the level of noise, but will still keep all the details visible. And by doing this, you've reduced the size by 50%.
But if you try to achieve the same size reduction by compressing the original 3200x1800 images, the compression will start to blur the image, and so imply a loose of quality.
Now, when you configure Ren'py to works at 1920x1080, and fill it with CG at a 1920x1080 resolution. The size of this distribution will obviously be smaller than the "high quality" distribution (3200x1800 configuration and CGs). Then, if the player manually upscale the windows to fit his 3200x1800 screen, Ren'py will automatically scales the images. For this, every 2 pixels it will add a pixel based on an interpolation of the surrounding pixels. The result will soften the details, but be near enough to the original color of this pixel to not blur the said details ; therefore the quality will be lowered, but less than by the compression approach.
So in the end, you have a game that need less size, like a compressed version, while still having a better visual quality than the said compressed version.
Obviously, using this way you can't compete against super crunched version of the game, that can reach a 90% reduction rate. But you should be able to reach a reduction rate between 35% and 45%.
Even if the ratio is smaller from 1920x1080 to 1280x720, a game like Ecchi Sensei, which need 16.6 Go, could have had an official "low size" version sized at 1280x720 that would have kept a good quality, but still have a size around 12 Go, which would already be a good save.
Ren'py only scales the images when explicitly asked (by using the
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displayable by example), or when the game windows is resized (either automatically to fit the screen resolution, or manually).
So if you directly use 2000x1440 images in the game, Ren'py will display them at full size on a 1000x720 windows, which will lead to half of the image being not seen.