- Aug 4, 2020
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- 19,701
Nonchalant my ass!Hey guys, anything interesting happen while I was at work?
Oh, DPC released a new update with a few numbers. I guess that's nice. I mean it's nothing to get too excited over since it's the sort of thing that could happen any time and really isn't a big deal so there's no reason DPC won't keep giving us numbers in the future even though he hasn't in a while but surely that could change at any time like maybe even next week, right??
... Errr, right. It's a totally sensible and unremarkable thing for him to do, so there's no sense in making a fuss about it. Of course since we do have these numbers now, I suppose we might as well take a calm, very understated look at them.
In the 49 days since DPC last gave us some numbers he has completed at least 1000 static renders and 85 animations. That means his minimum render pace is 143 statics and 12.1 animations per week. His overall render rate for Episode 8 has increased from 111 statics/week to 125, while his animation render rate can only dip from 12.8/week to 12.5 at worst. For those interested, I happen to have a few charts.
As you can see, going by these numbers we're still a long way off. It would take until early October for DPC to hit his 3000 static/300 animation target, and I personally doubt he'll wind up with "only" 3000 renders. I'm sure the animation/static ratio will continue to increase, but statics are too central to telling the story to see them drop from the Episode 6 and 7 level, especially if Episode 8 is as big as DPC suggests. There are just too many characters over too many days to save much time by reusing generic renders (and frankly, I think the game would loose a lot of its charm if it tried). So I think we're still looking at 3500+ statics.You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.
Of course, the other side to the story is that DPC only said the 2000/200 bar had been cleared. He didn't say when it was cleared, nor by how much. DPC's highest known render rates in Episode 7 were 307 statics/week and 27 animation/week. Admittedly those were on very different weeks, but he still managed ~218 statics and 17 animations per week simultaneously on at least one occasion.
If we pretend DPC has been secretly working at that pace since his last numerical update, he'd actually hit the 3000/300 mark around the second week of September. If we assume the more likely scenario that DPC has only cleared hit the 2000/200 bar recently but will now resume a 218/17 pace, he could reach 3000/300 by mid September. That's probably still too rosy, but it's basically the best case scenario: release in early October (add 2 weeks for testing) after a development time comparable to Episodes 6 & 7.
Meanwhile the worst case scenario remains DPC's estimate that he was ~30% complete back on June 25. By that metric we'd hit 100% on November 5, and might still need 2 weeks for testing since DPC tends to refer to that as a separate phase from writing/artwork.
In short, while numbers are always appreciated, we're basically where we've been for the last month: a very nebulous target that stretches from October through November. Given that DPC continues to stress how much more work there is to do, we should probably lean towards the November half of the estimate, sadly.
Even more sadly, we're unlikely to know anything more next week.
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