- Jul 22, 2022
- 126
- 331
This is fan dedication taken to an entirely different level. My man is out here calculating projections, and making charts. I bow before you.Sheesh, I stop paying attention to this thread to play CoBD and DPC releases an out-of-schedule update on me! And it has numbers! So my much for my cynically assuming I had a whole week to prepare.
Anyway, we got a lot of info. DPC has completed 496 static renders in the last 23 days (an average of ~151 renders per week), and 16 animations in the last 30 days, an average of ~3.7 animations per week. Overall, DPC is now averaging roughly 136 statics and 7.6 animations per week since the Interlude launched. We also have new target numbers: 4652 statics (up by ~500 since last estimate) and 300 animations (nearly even with the last estimate). We even learned that DPC's animations apparently run at 30 frames per second, though that tidbit is not especially informative at the moment. Anyway, let's plug all of this into our charts (and normalize them for the sneaky non-Friday release) and see what we get:
As you can see, the bad news is that we're still waiting for the slow animations to clear the queue; until that happens our trendlines are going to be hopeless pessimistic. The good news is that should change next week (assuming we get new numbers), though with the threesomes animations queued it's not clear how big a bump that would give us. So we'll have to estimate: if we assume DPC will resume his overall average rate of ~7.6/week starting next Friday, he'd hit the target around November 30; if we assume he'll match his highest speed from this cycle (10/week), he'd finish around November 9; if he pulls out all the stops and matches his highest confirmed rate (17/week during Episode 7) then he should be finished with animations by mid-October. The actual results should fall somewhere within that zone.You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.
Personally, I don't think 17/week is plausible if there are still complex renders in the queue, so we're probably looking more in the 9-13/week range. That translates between lateish-October and mid-November. That would synch up with the time needed to hit the new static render targets, and I suspect also give DPC enough time to finish all the writing/programming tasks as well. If we add two weeks for beta testing, I'd expect to see the launch in somewhere between the middle and end of November. DPC might be able to shave that back to early November is things break our way, but I think it would take a miracle to get things finished in time for an October release (unless DPC trims back on the targets, of course).
So we are finally seeing signs of the finish line, but we're definitely not in the home stretch yet.
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