Is picking the right program for the type of game I want to make just as important?
It's also important, of course but, globally speaking, the kind of game you want to make can be done with most game engines. Some are better fitted for this, but the others still can do well.
I could make an rpg with a program like Ren'py just like how I could drive in a nail with a rock instead of hammer.
You would have as much difficulties to do it with Unity or Godot.
While not being strictly a RPG,
Lust Hunter is the demonstration that you can perfectly have a map system and a clothes/equipment system, with Ren'Py. And it's so badly done, that it also prove that you can do this in a good enough way without having coding knowledge. This last part being way less true for Unity. And even more for Godot, since Unity have tons of frameworks and templates to help you.
For a JRPG-like combat system, look on the side of
Sakura Dungeon or
Planet Stronghold 2. And both are games made with old versions of Ren'Py, it would be a bit easier nowadays.
This being said, I second
GNVE, whatever the engine you choose, since you have near to no coding knowledge you'll have to starts with something small and less ambitious first.
And once again this apply even more for Unity and Godot than for Ren'Py. This because despite all the frameworks and templates you can find, they'll need a lot more of coding from your side than Ren'Py.
One may be more optimized to get the job done but if I'm better at using a rock then is that all that matters?
The only game engine optimized to get the job done is RPG Maker. But it's optimized to get the job done, not to have an optimized game that will be flawless and accurately fit what you want to do.
Whatever Unity, Godot or Ren'Py, all are more generic. The first twos will give more optimized result
if your code isn't a total none optimized mess, but way more pron to bugs. You'll never be able to make a "pixel move" RPG with highly animated environment and characters with Ren'Py, but the more static version you'll be able to do with it will need less knowledge, and be less prone to bugs, that an equivalent with Unity or Godot.
What program would you recommend to start with?
I already answered this, the one you feel at ease with.
Would I be totally honest, I would even answer Visual BASIC, or even goes back to MSWLogo... It wouldn't at all let you do the game you want, and would be a pain in the ass for a game (that you wouldn't even be able to do with the second), but it would teach you coding basis.
But, well, all Ren'Py games available here tend to prove that it's a step that can probably be skipped.
