Drowning in Ren'py VNs and Daz Renders. The death of genres, innovation and saturation

[Sumodeine]

Apologies in advance for the manifesto that is below. I started to write a response, and rambled on and on... TLDR: Industry itself is unique and I think the market will sort itself out. As the overall quality of games get better, it will be harder for newcomers to enter the market and compete.

This is certainly an interesting topic that I know I have thought about a good bit, as I'm making my own game and brings about some really good discussions. This very new market is unlike most that anyone studies in school or has much expertise in. As a (very small) dev, I am creating a game and people essentially donate money to me because they like what I'm in the process of making (not even finished making!). This is something they can get for free, but some people choose to give me whatever amount of money they feel like giving because they want to. Sure, some developers have rewards or early releases for the different pledge amounts, but in what other industry does someone provide an unfinished product or service to a wide audience and just take what people are willing to give them? Other than street/subway performers, I can't think of any... This tells me we are far from a mature market -- we don't even have a real marketplace!

Because there is a very low barrier for entry, as was mentioned already in this thread, ANYONE can decide one day that they want to make adult games. We see this several times a week on this site. It seems like nearly daily there is another V.1 or Alpha release of a new game on the site. Why? Because so many people think (1) this is going to be easy (2) other people are making a lot of money doing this (3) how hard can it be and (4) it does't cost anything to give it a shot and/or I want to try something new. Whether or not that is a good thing can be debated. I tend to think it is. Simply put: more choices = better odds that consumers will find something they like. I think the market does sort out the good from the bad. So many of these new V.1s don't get far passed that when the new dev gets frustrated that they aren't making $1000s a month and they give up. Others steadily, slowly grow as their game gets traction and still others shoot up like a rocket ship after a promising first or second release. This doesn't happen as much as it did 1-2 years ago, but it still happens (I'm pretty sure A Wife and Mother surpassed $1,000 very quickly after the first release). I'm kinda surprised that pornhub hasn't tried to monetize this industry at all - they have their verified amateurs section where amateurs can submit and make money based on the amount of views that they get - I would think porn games have a place somewhere in there as well.

Now to answer your original question about where we are. In my opinion, we are getting close to the end of the growth stage - the games are becoming somewhat standard gameplay, but there are still a decent amount of unique games. At the same time, there are some industry leaders that are emerging (ICSTOR, Lewdlab, Mr Dots, etc). There are games like Milfy City that absolutely blow my shitty animations out of the water, and as that quality becomes the norm it's going to be harder and harder for the new/little devs to compete. I'm not saying that's going to happen tomorrow, but I can see it on the horizon. So the choice for the new/little devs is becomes either attempt to get on their level or stop making money - and that's when things could get really difficult.

As a very small dev, I'm just going to keep making the game I want to make and see where it takes me. I started doing this for fun and because I wanted a creative outlet. Before doing this, I taught myself woodworking (no lie). I started playing some adult games and thought to myself that I could do something like this. I'm still very much learning, but this is a labor of love for me and it relaxes me. I told myself I'll keep doing this as long as I enjoy doing it and I'm not losing money. It's entirely possible in a year that the market standard has surpassed my capabilities and people stop donating to me, OR as my game slowly grows, I'm able to afford the resources necessary to increase the quality of my game. Or maybe there will always be a market for the small guys with bad animations to create in, while the vast majority of the money goes to the industry leaders... Anything is possible with an industry this new. Who knows which direction we go in from here??

 

[polywog]

(Disclaimer: It's not my intention to be a downer or in anyway dismiss the work indie developers are doing, using these tools. I want to share my ideas about genres, our emerging niche of Western Adult Indies and what we can expect, looking at patterns from the wider gaming industry history)

We all know the Adult Indie game scene has been blowing up over the last couple of years. Pateron, free middle-ware engines (Ren'py, Twine, Unity, etc), Daz3D and the Triple-As shyness to adult content (Violence = Entertainment, Tits = an AO rating and no Steam sales) have created a low barrier to entry and a thirsty, underserved audience. A new genre has emerged, Western Adult 3D CG VNs? (I'm bad at naming things)

Genres are a powerful force, they create audiences and demand for particular styles of games. But they don't last forever, just like a fashion trend, we cannot assume that a genre will always exist, or that a genre will have competitive room for our latest title. A genre in decline is a dangerous market where past success is no indication of future success.

So:

- What are the stages of a genre lifecycle and where are we now?
- What are the common success strategies associated with each lifecycle stage?

• Introduction: A new and addictive set of game mechanics are created. If you are the trendsetter, the chances of you getting an early Genre King is high, there's no competition and no audience expectation for AAA quality.
• Growth: The game mechanics are experimented with and genre addiction begins to spread. Costs are low, there's this new underserved audience that is finding out it likes this jelly, but this is a gold-rush. Competitors are popping up all over the place.
• Maturity: The game mechanics are standardized and genre addiction form a strong market force. Product differentiation occurs primarily through higher layer design elements like plot, license, etc. To be the Genre King, you need to throw money and time to be better than anything that came before. Customers demand more, better graphics, voice-overs, cut-scenes, etc.
• Decline: The market consolidates around the winners of the king-of-the-genre battles that occurred during the Maturity phase. New games genres begin stealing away the customer base. With less financial reward, less games are released.
• Niche: A population of hardcore genre addicts provides both the development resources and audience for the continued development of games in the genre. Quality decreases.

Selling innovative and new games early on can be dramatically more profitable and less risky than selling commodity products, the early market is small, but the money is much better. Nintendo sells less but makes more money. Sony and Microsoft sell more, but make less profit. Nintendo made a killing with Mario, and then left that genre, knowing they couldn't compete in a mature genre with the likes of Prince of Persia, Jax and Daxter, etc.

I think we're at the end of the Growth phase and heading to Maturity. look at the Game Dev forum and see the number of posts about Renpy and Daz3D. Look at TFGamesite and the explosion of HTML Sugarcube clones. The growth stage is about experimentation and the gold rush. Maturity is about the clones and incremental improvement. How many BattleRoyale games were announced at this years E3? Notice the similarity?

If you are starting development of a game, do you Nintendo or Microsoft? Do you innovate early and potentially make a new genre or do incrementally polish in the booming market? Both can be successful strats if you time it right.

Making clones of Renpy games using the same Daz3D marketplace of assets is fine in the Intro or Growth stages. It's suicide in the Maturity and Decline stages.

Where do you think we are now? Do you think whatever we are seeing now can be classed as a genre? What should we call it? Will we see an evolution and mixing of genres or just more incremental polish? Can you spot a Daz3D render from a 100 yards?


Thanks for reading.

I have been making Adult computer games since before you were born, and the genre existed before I got started.
The industry continues to grow, and I don't see any decrease in the foreseeable future or beyond.

Someone who is clueless about 3D, might foolishly believe that graphics technology reached it's pinnacle in the 1990s when "The Sims" were given the ability to have sex with one another. I'll agree that it was a milestone achievement, that certainly introduced tens of millions of people to the genre, but it was far from the peak... and despite numerous advancements over the three decades since, we are still technologically far from the peak. Our reach exceeds our grasp. 30 years from now, trolls will still be posting their complaints about game quality. The best graphics cards on the market TODAY are shit, compared to what we would like them to be.

That being said... There is term called "State of the art" which is where we give developers a pat on the back, and tell them that we appreciate their efforts, and acknowledge that they did the best they could with what they had to work with.

 

[Joraell]

I think main thing about creating anything in 3D is some quality with you started. Because when you once do models and stuff and during your project comes something new and much better you cannot change your character just like that. Because players will not like that changes. Characters will look diferently. So you first as a developer must finish your actual job and moved to new one.

 

[polywog]

I think main thing about creating anything in 3D is some quality with you started. Because when you once do models and stuff and during your project comes something new and much better you cannot change your character just like that. Because players will not like that changes. Characters will look diferently. So you first as a developer must finish your actual job and moved to new one.

In the development stages... You could create your game using stick figures, and then go back and flesh it out later if you want. If the story is good, and game play isn't too buggy, people will overlook faults, and let their imaginations fill in blanks.
Some players might become attached to you're earlier black and white characters, and be shocked when you start adding color and shading. They've been using their imagination to "put meat on the bones" and odds are, their concept of what your character looks like, is going to be very different than what you had in mind all along. Some developers try to avoid disappointment by giving initial concept art, to show what the characters will look like in the final evolution, but this can lead to even more dissatisfaction, when someone plays the alpha versions and doesn't see the final quality in the early stages.

You can please some of the people some of the time, but you can't please all of the people all of the time. Get used to disappointing people, it's unavoidable. The good news, is that people who didn't like the changes you made in v.05, can keep playing v.04 forever. So don't let a few negative comments hold you back from finishing your game, the way you intended.