the guy still makes 17k a month, this is not logical that 3000 people see the release logs and think "money worth spent"
Could just be a mix of new and old patrons.
Of those 3000 people, how many do you think have been there the whole time?
How many are, as you said, people who have subbed and just forgot?
It could very well be a revolving door of people who subscribe for a few months, see the dev cycle, and nope the fuck out.
When you look at the project as a whole, yeah, it's kinda worrying; but when you see a gif or two on Twitter or wherever?
There's no denying the game, at first glance, looks appealing. People see it, think "wow neat," pledge for a month or however long, and unpledge when they see the how the development actually goes.
Hell, I was the same way a few
years ago. Saw the game, thought "neat," pledged for a bit, and only after a month or so of pledges did I learn what Eromancer did with MATM and the general update cycle of PO.