Please go and read what the gambler's fallacy actually is, since it's not what you posted. What you posted is an entirely different fallacy (which I don't know if it has an official name), but I would call something like the "odds fallacy".
Here's a helpful
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, if you don't want to google it.Yes, as you roll more attempts, the chances of getting at least one success approach 100% no matter how unlikely that event is, which is NOT what the gambler's fallacy is. It is only about the lack of memory between one random event and another, but humans tend to assume that a small number of samples hold true for a larger sample. Roulette colors landing is where this was first codified, thus why I used that in my example. Coin flips, child genders, and other similar random events with a low number are easiest to see this with, but low probability things in games often lead to the assumption as well. Like thinking the boss has a 5% chance of dropping item X, so the more times I run the boss fight the more likely it is to drop X.
Regardless, this is going to be the last I post on this, since it'll get progressively more off topic (and possibly start a flamewar) if I continue.
Penitensary
Active Member
- May 10, 2020
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I can understand the thought though.
If the drop chance is 5%, then there's a 95% chance of it not dropping. If you kill the boss twice, then the chance of still not having gotten the item is 95% of 95%, or 90.25%. You will therefore have a 9.75% chance that you will have gotten the item. While this can of course never be 100%, it would nevertheless approach it the more attempts are made even if the actual drop chance never changes.
Since the odds of not getting the drop even once keep getting smaller the more attempts are made, it would not be unexpected to translate this to an ever increasing chance of getting the thing to drop even though the percentage chance remains the same. That is something inherent of mass statistics
this isn't the gambler's fallacy. If you roll a 1/300 chance 208 times, there's a 299/300 chance of failing an individual attempt which means a (299/300)^208 chance of failing every attempt, which comes out to a 49.932% chance of failing all 208 tries and a 50.067% chance of succeeding at least one of them.
The gambler's fallacy would be assuming that if you have a 1/300 chance and you roll 300 times there's a 100% chance that one of them wins, when it's actually closer to a 63% chance. To get up into the 90% range you have to do almost 700 rolls, and 100% chance is impossible.
I had a short discussion with someone else about this already, that isn't what the gambler's fallacy is either. The gambler's fallacy has a pretty specific definition, though there are numerous fallacies (including the one you mentioned) that gambler's use as part of their continued gambling. I posted the link to the wiki about what is specifically the gambler's fallacy, rather than any fallacy used by gamblers.
TLDR the gambler's fallacy is thinking previous random events affect future events when there's no link between those events. Roulette is the classic example, where gambler's see a string of red and assume that the wheel is more likely to get black due to that.
Penitensary
Active Member
- May 10, 2020
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Yup.
To elaborate, if the wheel landed on red seven times in a row, the gambler's fallacy is "The odds of it landing on red for the 8th consecutive time is 0.39%, therefore the chance of this roll being black is 99.61%" as opposed to the 50/50 chance it actually is.
Wow, less than 10 days since the latest patreon version was posted here...am sad there's no new updates yet.....(twitch)
am gonna wait ....very much patience I do yes sir (twitch)
kurosx
Well-Known Member
- Oct 1, 2017
- 1,685
- 3,922
10 days without an update? Yes, seems abandoned.
0.3.2.05 is a non-public preview release. Incomplete features are part of the deal.
Relatedly, though, one of these should have a different name.
Buffmutti
Member
- Aug 27, 2021
- 174
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I'm playing now version 0.3.2.06 and i used to advance my pregnancy "a bit", but if you look at the number of pregnancies you can read 2 instead of 1 (the number of Boys and Girls is a hint that this is my first pregnancy xD). Is this a known "side effect" of advancing the pregnancy with the cheat menu?
Okay to be fair I didn't see that the patreon version was UPDATED a bit later. The post that WAS .05 turned into .06. If someone had pointed it out nicely I would have uploaded it sooner. The posts aren't usually updated to post a new version, a new post is made.
NOTE** Updated to 3.2.06. Adds new clothes, fixes to cleaning and other bug fixes
This update adds in a whole bunch on new clothes. Too many I already lost count. It also has a few bug fixes reported since the last release.
Most, but not all, clothes have all breast/belly variations. I will get round to the missing ones as well as wardrobe icons tomorrow.
The Fixer 0.3.2.06 changelog
NOTE** Updated to 3.2.06. Adds new clothes, fixes to cleaning and other bug fixes
This update adds in a whole bunch on new clothes. Too many I already lost count. It also has a few bug fixes reported since the last release.
Most, but not all, clothes have all breast/belly variations. I will get round to the missing ones as well as wardrobe icons tomorrow.
The Fixer 0.3.2.06 changelog
- Added in 38 new wardrobe items including some Halloween themed outfits
- Added in wardrobe icons for all new bits of clothes as well as icons for some previous missing items
- Added in a checker when dressing up to make sure you actually have the items of clothing. Only really effects the cleaning job so you cant wear things you don’t own
- Made it so cleaning the pub actually pays
- Fixed where if you try to clean the pub without having worked there before, you would be naked.
- Made it so that the wardrobe defaults to the outfit section if you are wearing an outfit. Otherwise it defaults to tops
- Updated the fight checker, now if you have the broken perk or low confidence, you will be too afraid to fight back. If you have the succubus perk or the broken virgin perk you can choose not to resist
- Fixed the gloryhole crash
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- Being too far behind on rent triggers Oskar to threaten to kick you out. After pleading with him he will give the casino job (can’t actually work there yet)
Right there in the changelog.
Buffmutti
Member
- Aug 27, 2021
- 174
- 130
Where is the gloryhole? And is working in the pub the only way to earn a good amount of money (at the moment)? It seems you can't work as a whore (besides the sexual encounters in the pub) for now since the highway is mentioned here and there, but it seems i can't go there.
Athia
Newbie
- Sep 15, 2022
- 75
- 91
For the glory hole, it's gonna start with the three boys in the football field/behind the old locker, it'll require you to get 3 separate items, and then you'll be able to create one