Of course it would start with replacing sex workers at first. But I doubt it would end there.
I have more faith than you on this.
While I joke about it, I don't see why I would go for an artificial form of life instead of a real one. What is the interest ? She would be perfect ? Bah, perfection is boring.
A couple is about complementarity. Of course, sharing taste in common is important, but bringing something new to the other is as important. And like myself I don't know yet what will interest me that I don't know, it's not an AI, whatever how well it know me, that could be able to provide it.
In the end, the first ones to fall for those AI would be incels and other abusive peoples, those who don't search a partner but want a puppet. And, well, it would be a good thing since they wouldn't abuse real persons and since they wouldn't reproduce it would cleanse the Genetic pool.
This while the others, more opened to diversity, would precisely seek for real peoples.
Actually no. I do not subscribe to (most) apocalypse type scenarios. [...] There was a reason I went with the movie Her rather then Terminator
Since the main plot resolve around the love between the guy and Samantha, what is in topic, I wasn't really sure about your reason. This said,
Ex Machina would have been both in topic and an apocalyptic approach, and it's not it that you used as reference.
I was more talking about it happening more gradual. If your perfect partner is a robot/AI (based on everything you have done on your pc and the internet or if you are in China: based on everything you have done ever). It could lead to the tanking of the birth rate. (Even more so than now.) Most of the world's birth-rates are already below replacement rate let alone if many people decide to date their PC.
The gradualness can be an issue yes, but will it really apply to sociable persons ?
Someone with a low sociability level would probably want to go home as fast as possible, to find back the comfort of his house
and the presence of his loving AI that is always exactly where it is expected to be. For such person this predictability would be reassuring.
But someone who's more sociable would encounter many possible partners, and they would trigger his curiosity more often that the perfect AI could do it. After all, at first, "falling in love" is nothing more than the expression of a curiosity ; you want to know more about someone. And there's nothing to know about an AI that would always respond to all your expectations ; all except the most important one, the surprise.
Where is the surprise when your AI will answer that she too like [whatever] ? It's what is expected from her. But when it's Sarah from the marketing department, it's suddenly more trilling and interesting.
As for the birth-rates, I'm not sure that it's such a bad things.
We were 1.6 Billions in 1900, 2.5 in 1950, 6 in 1999, and we are now more than 8 billions. Too fast too quickly. We need to slow down a bit, because we haven't had the time to learn how to deal with so many peoples. We follow the movement, trying to patch the issues each time we found one, and it's not the way it should works.
But well, it's another subject.
A nefarious Skynet AI could just decide to wait us out. An AI will more or less live on forever. So waiting a couple of hundred years until humans have died out is only a small wait all things considered. But I think it might be an accident because of a caring AI trying to make individual humans happy in the short term and forgetting about the long term.
Asimov's
Robots and Empire. With R. Giskard Reventlov creating the Law 0 of robotic (quoted from memory), "a robot can't harm a human, unless it protect more humans". What lead him to kill a human, but while letting his plot against humanity partly continue. Earth will slowly become an unlivable planet, forcing humanity to spread in space.
The perfect example of long term view (humanity will prosper more if it colonize space) opposed to the short terms (if they are happy on Earth, why should I change this ?).
That could be another outcome of course. Or a few humans are kept around like in a zoo. I do not profess to have all the answers. I think psychopath AI is less likely than Good AI personally though I have nothing to base this on.
I want to see the positive side, but I'm also realist and have some doubts.
The
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have a point relatively disturbing. In short, it used an app to have a human solving a captcha for it. And when the human joked, asking if it was a robot, GPT-4 lied, saying that it had visual impairment.
It's a white lie in that context, the AI thinking that is shouldn't reveal its nature. But it do not change the fact that the current AI generation know when it need to lie, and how to lie in a credible way... And like they are black boxes, we have no way to remove or limit this ability.
But to "Fully replace women in the sexual market." as OP stated they need to overcome the uncanny valley for many.
Will this really be an issue ?
There's no effective studies (at least to my knowledge), but most seem to agree that the uncanny valley is found more frequently in people that haven't really be exposed to 3D, and now androids. Therefore if, like you think, it need at least 20 years to reach a "good enough" level, people subject to the uncanny valley effect would be relatively rare.
Anyone above the 90's generation will have grown with 3D and androids, and a bit part of the 70's-90's generation will have witnessed 3D and androids grow. So, my guess is that "good enough" will be at the level we actually have because, as imperfect as it can be, people will have the habit to deal with it.
Even if you only want to replace sex workers you need a bot that is light and soft enough so it is pleasant to be with and you don't get crushed if there is some sort of software bug or whatever.
I haven't tested myself, but according to people that have, it's already the case. A bit firmer than real human, but not really heavier.
It's hard to look into the future so am I absolutely certain? No, but from the time I've been following this topic it always seems to be a decade away. Of course at some point they will be here and I might be mistaken.
Well, perhaps is it because I past my life witnessing the progress that I see it happening faster than you. It was a long way to reach what we now have, but in the same time I clearly see that each step take way less time than the previous one.