Based on what assumptions you have estimated this? Don't forget that Altos now has entire team and this can (I don't say it has to) change a lot of things. Basically, we know nothing how often future updates will be released. I think only after release 0.14 or 0.15 we can estimate further releases dates.
I suppose I should make this clear up front: I am in this for the long haul. However long he needs to take to make the game he wants to make, that is fine with me. I really believe that this is a once-in-a-generation game, and that whatever time Altos is taking is being spent well.
Now, as for your point; I understand the sentiment, but I respectfully disagree. With the information that is already available to us, I believe that we can make reasonable estimations already.
TL,DR; I believe that the builds through 0.17 (and possibly 0.18) will take on average 210 days each.
First off, what we are getting in the builds is similar. In 0.12, we got a brand new punishment system implemented for Priti. In 0.13, will be getting a completely reanimated punishment system for Rachel. In 0.14, we are getting a brand new punishment system implemented for Faye ... and so on, through 0.17. The point that I am getting at is that the workloads for each of these is going to be similar - animating and coding new (or effectively new) punishment systems, alongside writing new story beats, with additional side content to round things out. And because the workloads are similar, it stands to reason that the time that it is going to take to make these updates are going to be similar.
And that is already bearing out. The time that it took to make 0.12, that is measuring from the release of the final public version of 0.11 to the final public version of 0.12 was
210 days (August 13th, 2021 to March 11th, 2022). The scheduled release date for the public build of 0.13 is October 8th, 2022. That is
211 days from the final public version of 0.12.
Considering that the work loads for each of the builds is going to similar (based off of what we know about the builds), and that already they seem to be taking very similar amounts of time, I think that it is fair, as an
estimation, to say that
on average builds 0.14, 0.15, 0.16 and 0.17 will take a similar amount of time as builds 0.12 and 0.13 did, or 210 days on average.
In my reply to Godzilla1992, I was looking at the estimated time until 0.19 was released, because as I explained, I thought that somewhere on the discord I had read a post from Altos saying that after Alice's update, we were getting a Zoe update. I can't find that post, so maybe I have misremembered. I was talking about 0.19, because if I was right, and that Zoe was slated for 0.18 (which certainly does make sense) then the earliest that we could get a hypothetical Maxine would be in that build, 0.19.
And going off of the estimation of 210 days on average for each of those builds, that works out to be 1260 days (210*6) or 3.45 years. It should be noted that is does not factor in that we still have two months until the public release of 0.13, or that Altos has already said that 0.16 is going to take longer to implement the twins punishment system. Of course, there are things that could speed things up - as you pointed out, Altos now has a lot more help with the game than he has before, and even though he has told us not to expect faster updates, it is possible that it might turn out like that for us. Still, knowing what we know now, I don't think using 210 days for each build
as a guess is unreasonable.
In the end, it doesn't really matter though. What matters is the game. And to paraphrase Shigeru Miyamoto, a game that takes 210 days between builds is already good, but a bad game is bad forever.