If we assume that the average Bo Wei fan has the same life expectancy as the average American male, approximately eighteen.
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I think its safe to assume that most Bo Wei fans are between the ages of 15 and 34. According to the above source, 276 out of every 100,000 people die in that age range every year.
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Between 2019 and now, Bo Wei has had an average of 2,200 subs on Patreon.
100,000/2,200 = 45.45
276/45.45 = 6.07 dead ToT fans per year. 7f was supposed to come out three years ago, so 18 dead overall.
However, many of Bo Wei's fans are Chinese (and China's more dangerous than the USA) and many of Tower of Trample's players are F95zone exclusive, so the real number is probably higher.
It will be a long response so I just put the conclusions first:
1. Almost no Chinese supporters die during the delay. The death number of American supporters is also highly overestimated.
2. Your process of calculation is to be improved. The method should be similar to calculating the half-life of radioactive elements.
3. Most supporters are probably safer than Bo himself. We may pray for Bo not to be stopped by all kinds of reasons before Koda releases F7.
Part 1
In fact, China is safer than the USA, according to three perspectives: more accessible healthcare, no guns, drug-free society.
The Chinese government has always been defending Cov-19 actively. Number of existing cases there has been kept below 10k, which is lower than the daily increase in the US. Considering that China has a large population (4 times that of the US), it is reasonable to recognise China as a place where it is difficult for you to be exposed to the risk of contracting the virus.
Then it comes to sth not just about the Cov-19. The medical systems are different all over the world. I need to narrate sth with a brief introduction to American, British and Chinese medical systems.
According to my experience, the US medical system is primarily built on private healthcare. The feature is that it does not focus on "saving more people", but on "helping my customers , provide better service, and make profits". Usually, this results in high medical expenses. (This could be a very limited group of people. You can see how much Donald Trump spent when he got Coronavirus. I believe that most people are far from enough to be able to afford that.) If your hospital earns 1 million dollars receiving a wealthy patient, it might not be interested in taking care of those 1,000 people who could only afford $10 per person. You can be a kind person and help those people with low income regardless of costs and spends, but please note that in the American system, only those hospitals/infirmaries which are established for high-income patients have the most adequate funding (which means the best conditions) to help people. Therefore, in the US, people enjoy medical cares with huge disparities based on their economic conditions. What I need to clarify is that, most supporters, need to have some money (to continue supporting, even if it is not expensive for a single person), to be smart enough to master the use of Internet tools, to recognise and find a way to fullfill one's fetish, and to verify the correctness of information (Koda's delaying, online payment, the real access on the web page and ads pretending to be sth you should click, etc.), and to have a few spare time to enjoy the games (private time). The first one is often related to economic conditions, the second one with education, and the third one with social status. It is reasonable to say that, most American supporters should NOT be so poor to be not able to get any healthcare, and should NOT be living in areas with poor sanitation, or where shootings are common and chaotic. I believe deseases and shootings are major factors influencing the death rate, which makes the death rate of supporters much lower than the average numbers in US.
The medical system in the UK is based on universal healtcare held by the government. When you get ill, you go to the NHS facilities and get FREE diagnosis and treatment. There are also private hospitals charging high fees, but most people choose the NHS for 99% of the time. I'm trying to talk about US and China, so no more details about the UK, just to help understand how the Chinese government is running the healthcare system.
Healthcare in China is more likely to be between US and UK. It has national health care, but the public hospitals still charge fees from patients. However, Chinese hospitals only ask for a low price comparing to the American ones. Even poor people can afford it, and the government regularly sends special funds to everyone who has a job (the fund can only be used for healthcare to prevent people run out of money when needed). We may see a lot of Chinese students in the US. They usually pay higher tuition fees than American local students, but they are from high-income families in China. They are always looking healthy when they first come to the US, because they had no worries about medical service in China. However, if there's a car crash and you are there to help, the last thing a Chinese student would like to tell you before fainting might be "NEVER CALL THE AMBULANCE!" because they are not able to afford it! And how is an American person feel in China? Wow how could they provide free vaccines to everyone! (Yes, free vaccines also for people from outside of China. The logic of the Chinese government is that, if everyone gets the vaccine, the whole society will be safer, and then the economy will be better, so it is worth the government to pay for everyone.) BTW, the Chinese vaccines are proved to be quite safe and effective. If you want some comparison, you may find information from medical departments in Brazil and Turkey. They have held large trials on Chinese vaccines. As for the American ones, my opinion Moderna>Pfizer>Johnson. A few days ago the data of Pfizer side effects were available on twitter, but then most of the twits were deleted.
Anyway, there's also a statistics on motality rate in China.
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I would also like to mention that, similar to the situation in China or not, with all kinds of reasons, most European countries and Japan (guess these are countries where most supporters from, except for US and China)
Part 2
Suppose that there are 1,024 people. every day we lose a half of them. Two days later, how many people are left?
According to your calculation, every day we lose 512 people, so it's 1024-1024=0.
In the "death rate" case, it should be 1024*(1-1/2)*(1-1/2)=256.
If we assume that supporters have the same death rate as average American males, it should be 2200-2,200*(1-0.00274)*(1-0.00274)*(1-0.00274)=18.035 people died in 3 years. The result is pretty close to yours, but that is because that the cardinal number was not influenced too much in this case.
Part 3
As is known to all, Bo is a Chinese developer living in Hong Kong. Sadly, Hong Kong might be the most chaotic city in China these days. As I have mentioned, most supporters are proper safe now, but a lot of factors may influence Bo. Energy problem, riots, social contradictions, virus, political games... You cannot expect if there is a problem that stops Bo's developing in a sudden. I mean, Bo does not need to be "disabled" physically, but for example if one day there's a strike on network service and electricity (BTW electricity in Hong Kong did become disabled in the past), he cannot proceed his working then. Due to all kinds of complex effects, Bo might be the one who's in danger. (?)