It is very hard to observe impact of early leak like in this case. Not only the updates come every month, month being the payment cycle it's basically same day in the middle of the month. I would say it is best case scenario for observing leak impact on patreon.
So let's see. From grapheon chart already it doesn't look good.
View attachment 1832147
We can see that the bump during patch didn't go anywhere as high like it did last month and patron count almost didn't bump at all!
But to visualize it better i put the last four month on one graph and scaled them to the first day of month. This is how much pledge $ changes throigh month relative to the beggining of the month. So say if day one was 3000$ = 100% and day 10 - 3300$ = 110%:
View attachment 1832183
Previous month the increase was over 140%, the March being a worse month peaked at 132% . May didn't even go above 117%. Let's visualize the patch spike better by using the last day before patch as base.
View attachment 1832187
So the patch alone makes the dev make 22-25% extra cash if there is no leak. Due to the leak the dev only saw a 5% extra.
How much less did the dev get this month in $ ? If i apply the trend from lowest month of March then the dev is short 600$. This does not factor in people that sub in get the patch and sub out as those are not reflected in the graph to begin with.
Only the dev knows how much he gets from this type of people. If i would say he gets 1k from them then this month he got like 200$. If i speculate then i might as well use April trend for my assumption - 780$ less from graph and another 800 less from invisible patrons would mean he got 1600$ less thins month.
tl;dr: Due to early leak dev got at least 600$ less this month.
Have a nice day.