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merin_aspic

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Dec 24, 2018
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Today is June 14th...
25% left in CS & RS... at best these parts will be finished just before mid-July
And there's a good 3 weeks or 1 month of work left after that...
And I'm not taking animation into account

Exactly, being optimistic mid August. More likely late August or early September. Even Mid september could be.
 

rAmSiMaL

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Sep 1, 2022
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so far you think??
I'm hoping between August 1st and 15th.
It is June 14 today. The last time progress bars changed was Monday June 9 and it is expected to change again Monday June 16. It’s been quite some time now that progress increases on a weekly basis. So if it goes 5% per week Creation and rendering will finish August 25. Given the volume of this episode LP will need at best 1 month to finish editing, coding and translation. So 30/09/2025 is the date everyone is looking for… LP says for 150 renders in part 5 but I see it to be at least 220…
 

fapzoner69018

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Jul 1, 2023
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It is June 14 today. The last time progress bars changed was Monday June 9 and it is expected to change again Monday June 16. It’s been quite some time now that progress increases on a weekly basis. So if it goes 5% per week Creation and rendering will finish August 25. Given the volume of this episode LP will need at best 1 month to finish editing, coding and translation. So 30/09/2025 is the date everyone is looking for… LP says for 150 renders in part 5 but I see it to be at least 220…
I don't think that's true if u haven't noticed rendering is being simultaneously done with scene creation cuz before everytime we get 5% of SC we get 5 % of rendering as well so it maybe is delayed for one week at max but overall when the scenes are finished the renders will also be finished (almost) so given that 20% are left (assuming this monday we'll get our usual 5%) then there is a month left for scenes and rendering and add 1 week for animations + 3 weeks for the other stuff.
So most likely we'll get it in the first half of the second week of August.
(Also add one other week because all of this is theoretical and we're being overoptimistic so.. :rolleyes:)
Conclusion : probably in the last week of August if we're being realistic but hope not ..
 
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rAmSiMaL

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Sep 1, 2022
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I don't think that's true if u haven't noticed rendering is being simultaneously done with scene creation cuz before everytime we get 5% of SC we get 5 % of rendering as well so it maybe is delayed for one week at max but overall when the scenes are finished the renders will also be finished (almost) so given that 20% are left (assuming this monday we'll get our usual 5%) then there is a month left for scenes and rendering and add 1 week for animations + 3 weeks for the other stuff.
So most likely we'll get it in the first half of the second week of August.
(Also add one other week because all of this is theoretical and we're being overoptimistic so.. :rolleyes:)
Conclusion : probably in the last week of August if we're being realistic but hope not ..
Lord_Xanatos posts the progress update. Check his posts and you’ll understand what I’m saying…
 

fapzoner69018

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Jul 1, 2023
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Lord_Xanatos posts the progress update. Check his posts and you’ll understand what I’m saying…
As i remember we get 5% of SC per week and just when we're about to get another 5% we get the other 5% of rendering. So it's delayed by one week mostly if not less. So if we get the 5% of SC by Monday we'll have to wait a few days up to one week to get its 5% of rendering. So when all of the scenes are complete wait another week for all of them to render that's it. You'll notice that too in his posts a delay between rendering and sc of 1 week often.
 

xxxorro

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Jan 18, 2021
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With the usual caveat of taking everything with a grain of salt, here is where we are
1749920673673.png
As of today/latest progress report the projection is for a mid-August release.

It's very difficult to make any guess because more than any other this is a "special" release for many reasons (long dev time, num of renders, animations) so we are in uncharted territory.

Since April 25th we started to have 5% updates (SC or SR) every ~5 days on average.
**If it continues like that**, we will reach 100% in SC and SR by the end of July (~29th)
1749921760845.png
(projection if it keeps the 5% every 5 days)

It is likely that the event will have 850+ renders, which makes ~15 days of Photoshop editing (as reference, v0.195 with 764 renders took 13 days).

We have a record-breaking of 58 pages of script to translate or at least to code. The closest data I can compare with is again v0.195 (the party), which had 29 pages and took ~13 days to translate and code. Let's safely double that to 25 days.

We would be already in September, adding a couple of days for testing &C and we are looking at the first decade of September.

But wait, what about the animations?
**In theory** there should be 1 Blender animation done by the animator for part 5 while the others are **probably** loop animations done in daz3d as usual.
It has been said that he's moving to AI animations, which usually takes less time than posing every frame. It's not clear if the big animation is still on the menu at this point (cf the lack of progress) and he is pondering to replace it with an AI generated one. In any case, the blender animation **should** work in parallel and not add much work if not the PS editing of the frames.

Now, while it is easy to come up with other things that might further delay the release (vacation, honeymoon, animations, festival of bullshit, you name it ;) ), one thing that might be beating the drums for the optimists out there is still the animation.
Usually for the animator to work in parallel he develops the involved scene ahead. So it could be that he has already developed a part of the part 5 in order to give it to the animator. I mean the clothes (she must change her clothes, right? :) ), assets and locations are already set up, so one part of the job is done and he **may** speed up the pace a little bit for developing part 5.

But let's also keep in mind that he planned 150 renders for part 5, which, as usual, is likely and more realistically to become 200/250 renders as he ALWAYS underestimates them (or he adds them in the process).

So, keeping in mind this is just an academic exercise, if nothing drastically changes I'd say that is very difficult to see a release before mid August and the projection atm is more for the first decade of September.


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