Still having a hard time believing that animations will be done in 2 days. Also, if what you said is true and animation progress is connected to CS+RS in a sense that he can only progress animations when the scenes are created to that point, does that mean the update is ending on an animation? I mean, considering your theory and seeing how animations are moving much faster now, that should theoretically be the case, no?
But I highly doubt it, and so my theory is that L&P spends way more time on animation work now that he's done with scene creation is all. Playing catch-up, basically. Previous updates have shown that animation progress hasn't really much to do with CS+RS progress, atleast not in the way your (and others) theory would explain it.
As for the Programming&Translation part, I'd think it'll take longer than 8 days as this update has 700+ renders, and back in 2021 when he'd still release 1/3rd PD's with 700-900 renders, P&T would take him like 2-3 weeks if I remember correctly. Anyway, it's all speculation in the end as nobody really knows what's going on behind closed curtains, but I'd say you're not THAT far off unless he's vanishing for Christmas / New Years holidays, which is very possible.
