- Feb 14, 2018
- 1,890
- 3,973
(Correct me if I’m misinterpreting that but this is how it came off)
“Get what you get and you don’t get upset” doesn’t work.
- Thread starter CobraSGT
- Start date
“Get what you get and you don’t get upset” doesn’t work.
Preface - I don't like the math below but this is what I see:
I'd love to see AWAM's present time of development trend lines change, but those lines point to >1 year for the development of 1 Playable Day (PD) at PD 13 and with the completion of each PD, if the quality/quantity of content remain the same, the PD that follows will take even longer.
If PD 13 takes, for example, 15 months to be completed (let's say completion is around Mar 2023) and we treat the time it takes to finish PD 14 as: PD14 = (PD13 + PD13/10) = 16.5 months (this adds 10% to the time of completion for the next PD).
PD 14 does not look too bad, 16.5 months development time (~August 2024).
This does not sound too bad, but let's extent the trend line out several more PDs:
PD 15 = (PD14 + PD14/10) = (16.5 + 1.65) = 18.15 months (~February 2026)
PD 16 = (PD 15 + PD 15/10) = (18.15 + 1.815) = 19.965 months (~September 2027)
Again, this gets more painful, timewise and we are all waiting longer and longer to see each PD completed.
It's when we carry the trend line out to, let's say PD 20 that we see how much slower development becomes, with PD 20 weighing in at 29+ months of development, putting the completion of PD 20 at around 3rd quarter, 2036.
You don't want to know what PD 30 looks like... Let's just say that, if the trend lines hold as described above, any U.S. citizens reading this now and, able to enjoy PD 30 content, will also be celebrating the 300 year anniversary of the founding of the U.S. - in 2076...
Most here understand the power of compounded interest - where your interest adds to your principal and dramatically increases the value of your $ through time.
Here, the power of compounded time does us no favors.
For those who think that the +10%/PD compounding factor is too pessimistic, reducing this by half to +5%/PD provides only minor relief.
Using a +5% factor in the example above puts us at PD 20 completion arriving at around 1st quarter 2034.
L&P is the only one with the power to change the math here.
This number would decrease if L&P did not take 7-10 days off after every mini release, and it would decrease even more if he did not maintain the DOL farce on Patreon, taking time away from AWAM (bumping as much support to SS as possible).
The only real way to knock time of development of each PD down to something that will see most of us enjoying AWAM at PD 30 is if L&P builds an effective team, something that his supporters have brought up Many times.
I'd love to see AWAM's present time of development trend lines change, but those lines point to >1 year for the development of 1 Playable Day (PD) at PD 13 and with the completion of each PD, if the quality/quantity of content remain the same, the PD that follows will take even longer.
If PD 13 takes, for example, 15 months to be completed (let's say completion is around Mar 2023) and we treat the time it takes to finish PD 14 as: PD14 = (PD13 + PD13/10) = 16.5 months (this adds 10% to the time of completion for the next PD).
PD 14 does not look too bad, 16.5 months development time (~August 2024).
This does not sound too bad, but let's extent the trend line out several more PDs:
PD 15 = (PD14 + PD14/10) = (16.5 + 1.65) = 18.15 months (~February 2026)
PD 16 = (PD 15 + PD 15/10) = (18.15 + 1.815) = 19.965 months (~September 2027)
Again, this gets more painful, timewise and we are all waiting longer and longer to see each PD completed.
It's when we carry the trend line out to, let's say PD 20 that we see how much slower development becomes, with PD 20 weighing in at 29+ months of development, putting the completion of PD 20 at around 3rd quarter, 2036.
You don't want to know what PD 30 looks like... Let's just say that, if the trend lines hold as described above, any U.S. citizens reading this now and, able to enjoy PD 30 content, will also be celebrating the 300 year anniversary of the founding of the U.S. - in 2076...
Most here understand the power of compounded interest - where your interest adds to your principal and dramatically increases the value of your $ through time.
Here, the power of compounded time does us no favors.
For those who think that the +10%/PD compounding factor is too pessimistic, reducing this by half to +5%/PD provides only minor relief.
Using a +5% factor in the example above puts us at PD 20 completion arriving at around 1st quarter 2034.
L&P is the only one with the power to change the math here.
This number would decrease if L&P did not take 7-10 days off after every mini release, and it would decrease even more if he did not maintain the DOL farce on Patreon, taking time away from AWAM (bumping as much support to SS as possible).
The only real way to knock time of development of each PD down to something that will see most of us enjoying AWAM at PD 30 is if L&P builds an effective team, something that his supporters have brought up Many times.
- Sep 23, 2020
- 1,407
- 7,723
You tried to put in a lot of math, but honestly you didn't need to and it is a bit wrong to assume PD 14 to be 16.5 months. There is basically 7 proper events in the whole day. I wouldn't even be surprised if he puts the entire morning of PD 14 in one update. If the Ellie event is in the shower then it will be to the point and not huge like around 300 renders. Currently a reasonable assumption for PD 14 can be taken as 10 months for the 7 events.
PD 15 will have a huge ranch event and a small other event too. It is probably the shortest PD we might get. Personally i expected around a 1000 renders from the day. Which shouldn't take him more than 7-8 months. So in the next 18 months, after PD 13, he should be able to get the next two PDs out.
For those who strongly disagree with the compounding time factor in my PD post above - here is a 'simple time' calculation based on 15 months/PD, ignoring the fact that LP is taking more time to complete each PD he finishes.
This makes the assumption that every PD will 'only' take 15 months:
PD Month/year of completion
PD 13 Mar 2023
PD 14 Jun 2024
PD 15 Sep 2025
PD 16 Dec 2026
PD 17 Mar 2028
PD 18 Jun 2029
PD 19 Sep 2030
PD 20 Dec 2031
...
PD 30 Jun 2044
The above estimates are Very optimistic, and don't reflect the trend lines L&P has created.
The reality is very likely to be somewhere between the two numbers, so PD 20 would be completed between Dec 2031 - Sep 2036.
I'll say it again - L&P is the one in control of the math.
Any estimate above cannot take into account remastering/Patreon changes/Daz updates or other software changes that could delay production some number of weeks to months
This makes the assumption that every PD will 'only' take 15 months:
PD Month/year of completion
PD 13 Mar 2023
PD 14 Jun 2024
PD 15 Sep 2025
PD 16 Dec 2026
PD 17 Mar 2028
PD 18 Jun 2029
PD 19 Sep 2030
PD 20 Dec 2031
...
PD 30 Jun 2044
The above estimates are Very optimistic, and don't reflect the trend lines L&P has created.
The reality is very likely to be somewhere between the two numbers, so PD 20 would be completed between Dec 2031 - Sep 2036.
I'll say it again - L&P is the one in control of the math.
Any estimate above cannot take into account remastering/Patreon changes/Daz updates or other software changes that could delay production some number of weeks to months
I guess the only upside of being trapped for 80 years in Interstellar was that the protagonist lived long enough to see the game completed, that too at a rapid pace.
I'd love to see the trend lines break and shift to every PD taking < 1 year to develop. It's certainly possible that a few PDs will be significantly shorter (much smaller render count) than the average PD and the upcoming PD 15 ranch event could be one of these.
L&P has made a habit of adding in events that were not scripted in his original PD layout provided to supporters:
The time taken to do initial animations
The extra Aiden event
I don't know that any PD, even a published one like the current one, will not see a new scene/scenes getting added in - which he has the right to do as the creator.
I provided my second PD Time example after you posted your reply (and before I had a chance to see it).
I thought it would be good to provide a bracket - optimistic - pessimistic time frame.
I hope that L&P breaks all of our estimates pushing AWAM PD 30 to a completion sometime well past 2030 (like finishing PD 30 within the next 10 years) but the only way to do this and maintain the quality that has kept so many of us involved with AWAM is to Build That Team!!
'Getting off the build that team soap box.'
- May 24, 2020
- 267
- 1,731
Flawed and invalid estimations. Next PD has less events than the current one. PD15 supposed to be even shorter.
You assume that every single update gets bigger and bigger, like a snowball, which can't be true. Each PD is individual, L&P himself has no clue about their size, it's a work-in-progress VN.
All this frustration with the pace is comprehendible. It's tough to coax the hoax, comprende? By that I mean there's no need to beg, whine, cry, get mad, mock and carry out all kinds of idiocy like we do in here in order to affect the dev of this VN. His goal is to make the game of his dream no matter how long it takes, banking on the banking accounts of his supporters. It's a stroll on a very thin sharp edge, I can only salute him.
The completion itself seems hardly feasible and would be considered a New Wonder of the World. Let's enjoy the ride together, while it lasts.
- May 10, 2017
- 7,304
- 15,887
is moving fast!!! ok how many pages of plot this event need?
- Sep 23, 2020
- 1,407
- 7,723
This event can have more than normal dialogue because this scene will incorporate not just the conversation but at the same time actual facts that Sophia will be teaching the boys and their interaction around it as well. Plus it is likely that there will be a conversation with Leah before as well.
- Mar 4, 2020
- 6,816
- 9,812
Nothing will happen as some have quoted here, L&P said nothing will happen?
- Jun 11, 2020
- 8,813
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If nothing is going to happen then why did he waste his time making 250 renders for this event, should have just skipped it then
- Sep 22, 2017
- 948
- 2,870
He didn't say that, but some here wish that nothing will happen so that users throw shit at L&P
- Mar 4, 2020
- 6,816
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I think something is up because it's been quoted by users who have been in this forum for a long time, unless they cheated.
- May 23, 2017
- 1,927
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Why? There can be body parts pencil sketches and bananas for condom training in play. They can also look like full grown-ups, who for whatever absurd reason require this kind of education.
EDIT: you're right. Nothing should happen there. But will it not?
I think I read that there is no second side job in DoL.
- May 23, 2017
- 1,927
- 6,089
IDK, never played
Just throwing a general joke on the well known issue.But, but - shouldn't there be something released to satisfy the update requirement on Patreon?