Oh, this is my favorite topic. I sincerely think that Patreon is a way for people to move/hide money as needed. I'm not necessarily suggesting that L&P is in on it, there's just sooooooooo much money being funneled into Patreon that it raises eyebrows. I don't know about AWAM, but from other creators I've spoken to (those that have what I consider large followings) the general consensus is that a huge minority or even slight majority of patrons never interact with what they're paying for. It's as if they're just giving money away. Speaking specifically about AWAM, at the start of every month there's the usual drop in patrons as people end their support; but I find it suspicious that by the end of the month the support has almost been perfectly replaced. Month after month this occurs.
The table below really makes me scratch my head. I'm not sure if it means anything, but what are the chances that in four out of the six months, the number of Patrons at the start of the month would drop to between 1637 and 1639 (with 1639 appearing twice)? Could be a total coincidence, but it's a heck of a coincidence. Every month he loses rough 20% of his patrons (between 18% and 23%) and yet almost always perfectly replaces them. In the five months from Oct to March, L&P "lost" 2,212 patrons and "gained" 2,225, a net gain of 13 patrons. That's remarkably steady. That means more than 4,400 patrons came and went in that time, for an account that only has ~2,100 patrons at its height every month. Does that strike anyone else as abnormal? I'd really need to compare it to other devs, but more or less L&P has seen 100% turnover in five months. Obviously he didn't, but it all seems like a lot of movement that always ends up being conveniently steady in the end.
Again, I'm not actually trying to accuse L&P of any conspiracy. I'm just pointing out that I think there's a lot to be suspicious about in terms of Patreon and its model. There's a lot of money being funneled through the website, and a very high rate of turnover.
End of Month Peak (# Patrons) | Start of Month Trough (# Patrons) | Net Change |
Oct 31st - 2016 Patrons | Nov 1st- 1639 Patrons | -377 |
Nov 30th- 2148 Patrons | Dec 1st- 1637 Patrons | -511 |
Dec 31st- 2083 | Jan 1- 1665 | -418 |
Jan 30th- 2063 | Feb 1- 1639 | -424 |
Feb 28th- 2120 | Mar 1- 1638 | -482 |
March 30th- 2029 | Apr 1- 1622 | -407 |