- Feb 25, 2017
- 3,340
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Like some would say, " It's moving "
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Nope, new variant. I hear there's a new strain after Omicron that has just been discovered in France (IHU)The question everyone is asking is will a new variant or update come out first? Sorry i couldn't resist
Indeed. In the south (Marseille). It's called " B.1.640.2. " , but it doesn't seem as dangerous as Omicron or Delta. Still, it's under close surveillance. Who knows what might happen. Those variants just keep on mutating.Nope, new variant. I hear there's a new strain after Omicron that has just been discovered in France (IHU)
relax L&P just opened up his MonsterWell, if there's a joke in here I can't find it.
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Long past. I put in eight days based on the announced delay, but that was back in December if I recall.How's the "festival of bullshit" stat?
I don't think it's a coincidence at all, but I also think it was part of a larger trend. It's something that I've been thinking about a lot lately, and it's probably worth its own thread, but I think there are a few related issues:A very interesting trend I have observed since the pandemic. Devs in general got less reliable. So the ones who were before that already unreliable, basically abandoned a lot of projects. The others who had just problems delivering timely, put games on hold. And many who did have a good record somehow got sloppy. Of course there are always good examples of those who still deliver high quality or the rather unfortunate ones, who, well died. (Palmer, Chatterbox R.I.P) But all in all, things got generally worse. It might be just a coincidence that it happened or is happening during a pandemic or economical crisis. Mind you I am only member here since 2017.
its moving
I don't think that it's wrong to "go off the rails". I mean, where else could we have this kind of discussion about something that is genuinely interesting.I don't think it's a coincidence at all, but I also think it was part of a larger trend. It's something that I've been thinking about a lot lately, and it's probably worth its own thread, but I think there are a few related issues:
1. The maturation of the Patreon economy- Patreon was a game changer for the AVG industry and allows for more adult games to be developed than ever before. Patreon opened the industry to a vast number of new developers with new ideas. Some of the earlier adopters have now been on the platform for 4+ years, and we've seen how their support has grown and matured. Most of the devs that have survived this long are no long concerned with the monthly fluctuations in their support, and many can rely on steady growth.
2. COVID Pressure Chamber- The AVG industry saw an explosion in growth with the onset of the pandemic and world-wide shutdowns. F95 itself saw membership balloon immediately following the start of the pandemic in March 2020. That brought a lot of new consumers into the market at the same time that devs were also locked in their homes with nothing else to do but work on their games. But that growth can be a double edge sword, and I think it brought a lot of new people into the market with different/higher expectations than those that had been in the market before.
3. Burnout- Even without COVID, I think there is evidence that after four years many creators on Patreon begin to suffer from burnout. I haven't done a scientific study on this, but anecdotally it seems to me that we can expect a major slow down of new content from games beginning in the third or fourth year. Many/most of the devs are amateurs with little to no experience producing games, and I think they struggle with planning. After initial success and momentum wears off, these devs are left with increasingly complex games that they have difficulty managing. This was made many times worse with the COVID Pressure Chamber effect. Devs who probably would have experienced some level of burnout anyways have spent the last two years getting the crapped kicked out of them. An onslaught of new consumers to the market (some pirates and some patrons) has raised the stress level higher and faster than many devs were prepared for.
4. Amateur Hour- As I said, many devs are new to creating adult games, and I don't think many of them did a good job of planning for the future. They had good concepts and worked hard, and that carried them for a long time, but they got into the market a year or two before COVID when Patreon was just beginning to take off. Because of their inexperience and lack of planning, they were probably always doomed to run into trouble by 2021. But because of COVID, with more eyes than ever on their games, the attention they get far exceeds what they could have expected in January of 2020. Back then if a game's development stalled and eventually died, there were relatively few people who would notice. Now some of these games have huge audiences, but they're still developed by a regular guy who is in way over their head.
When L&P set out to make AWAM, I think he correctly identified a gap in the market. High quality games with good stories are still hard to find, and in 2018 they were probably extremely rare. This whole time I suspect that he's been working off a set of expectations he formed back then, but I don't think he EVER accounted for his game being this popular and for consumers with these expectations. I can't prove this, but since the market has grown so much over the last couple of years, I wonder if the average player expects a higher level of professionalism from devs than the average player did in 2019. From what I've seen from other long running games, it seems like everything started off really small and with an engaged community that was more laid. But growth has brought less patience and more critical analysis. Some of that is bad (UPDATE WHEN? HAS SON FUCKED MOM YET?!), but some criticism is good because it reflects a maturing market and high levels of engagement.
ooookkkkk, this post went off the rails. I'm going to stop myself there, but yes, I do think there is a relationship between COVID and devs struggling to produce new content. I think the whole AVG industry is at a crossroads and L&P is just one of many devs that will need to adapt.
I suspect that we're in a Patreon bubble right now, and that a correction is coming. As we slowly emerge from the pandemic, and people's spending habits change, I think we'll see losses across the board for all creators. There could also be a purge from Patreon itself as they crack down on creators breaking the TOS. But putting that aside, if the bubble does burst, I think we'll see future growth concentrate into fewer developers. It isn't that the support for devs will collapse, but that the smaller community that emerges will self select devs that produce more/better content. Maybe L&P is on that list, I don't mean to say he won't be, but I can't see every creator surviving. And at some point reputation is going to matter, and games like Milfy City and Dual Family (just to name two) could see their growth drop almost to zero. If those games take big hits when the bubble bursts, and don't see a rebound, you may see the devs shut them down if they become more trouble than they're worth.I don't think that it's wrong to "go off the rails". I mean, where else could we have this kind of discussion about something that is genuinely interesting.
The stuff you're seeing now on AVG patreons? It's the same kind of thing that's been around the Kickstarter economy for even longer with stuff like Star Citizen. But I think you're more optimistic than me, because you think that these devs need to "adapt".
I ask: from where would the adaptive pressure come? Because it seems to me like once you have a certain level of support, it's fairly sticky. There's plenty of people who make enough money that they won't even notice dropping 100 bucks a month on a bunch of random patreons. Further, presence in the market creates a self-sustaining engine of growth. Take "Summertime Saga". When I first poked around the AVG scene, that game was the undisputed king of the ratings. Now it barely rates in the "weighted rankings", and any number of new games are superior to it. But money wise, it's bigger than ever! Why? Because people mosey along to patreon rankings and see, holy shit, a PORN GAME is the number 5 patreon? 80,000 dollars a month?! I gotta give it a try!
Maybe I'm wrong, but while I do think good games are rewarded (see the growth of Eva Kiss or FOZ), I don't think falling off is really punished? Like, can anyone here point to a game studio that experienced a high level of success, but then experienced patreon collapse?
Unfortunately.... you are likely in the 95% correct range. That is a gut feel no facts whatsoever.Like some would say, " It's moving "
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And a omicron variant here in the US. Yup, the signs are so not good.Nope, new variant. I hear there's a new strain after Omicron that has just been discovered in France (IHU)
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It would be nice if people would read my posts here where I tried to explain everything. One more time: it doesn't depend just on me alone this update. If it would, I would be already finished! There will be a new step from the new update on, so Part 2, for what I had to do a lot of organization things. You can tell me after the update is out if it was worth it or not! Until then, I ask for a little bit of patience.
Milfy City, as we just noted a page or two back, has been dead for a while and still has 5K + patrons. Go figure.I don't think that it's wrong to "go off the rails". I mean, where else could we have this kind of discussion about something that is genuinely interesting.
The stuff you're seeing now on AVG patreons? It's the same kind of thing that's been around the Kickstarter economy for even longer with stuff like Star Citizen. But I think you're more optimistic than me, because you think that these devs need to "adapt".
I ask: from where would the adaptive pressure come? Because it seems to me like once you have a certain level of support, it's fairly sticky. There's plenty of people who make enough money that they won't even notice dropping 100 bucks a month on a bunch of random patreons. Further, presence in the market creates a self-sustaining engine of growth. Take "Summertime Saga". When I first poked around the AVG scene, that game was the undisputed king of the ratings. Now it barely rates in the "weighted rankings", and any number of new games are superior to it. But money wise, it's bigger than ever! Why? Because people mosey along to patreon rankings and see, holy shit, a PORN GAME is the number 5 patreon? 80,000 dollars a month?! I gotta give it a try!
Maybe I'm wrong, but while I do think good games are rewarded (see the growth of Eva Kiss or FOZ), I don't think falling off is really punished? Like, can anyone here point to a game studio that experienced a high level of success, but then experienced patreon collapse?