- Feb 3, 2024
- 454
- 3,228
Renders are static renders plus animation run time * fps.
I actually just averaged out all the fps to 30 even though episode 10 lewd scenes were 60 fps, because the new hardware and the bloated framerate kinda cancel out.
That said, no matter what factor you multiple the animation runtime by, you still end up with roughly the same trend (unless you put a massive number in there).
Not sure what point there is in removing episodes to determine different trends. There are many factors influencing delivery times (render factors, game factors, hardware upgrades, and even external factors) that are not accurately factored in at all, so the point of collating all the episodes render data and trending it makes more sense the more episodes you include.
Of course you could say that if you just trend episode 2-7, then using that data, episode 10 should have been delivered 2 months faster. But on the flip side, if you just trend episode 7-10, then using that data, episode 2 should have been done in -22 days... There just isn't enough data in those subsets, so it doesn't make sense using it like that. The more data you include, the more useful it is.
But, if you scrap animation data altogether and just go on static renders, you surprisingly get an even better trend:
So, the renders really are dictating the delivery times. Which makes a lot of sense, since while he has renders churning away, he's working on the other stuff (like posing, coding, writing, music, etc.) in parallel.
I probably shouldn't have used the term "directly proportional", because there's no way they'd be, but the correlation is so strong, like, the coefficient is 0.97!
And episode 11 is running right in line with that. Using the formula for the trend (days = (renders + animation time * 30) * 0.0484 - 5.2547, (estimating 20mins of animation time since we don't really have those details yet, but we have animation count, and the big ones are done I believe), we end up with a dev time of only 9 days less than the time recorded.
TLDR; The time DPC is taking to deliver the episodes is directly linked to the number of renders. Number of renders is the strongest factor among all factors for determining delivery time within +/- a month's accuracy. And he's probably gonna just keep increasing the render count, so episodes are most likely gonna take longer and longer to come out.
