- Mar 19, 2020
- 934
- 2,608
Happy he's confirmed the date, taking 4 weeks over beta testing seems a bit much to me, but it is going to be a massive update so now some fun with numbers. These don't include Interlude. These are based on prduction weeks so don't include beta testing.
Production time for season 3 had already surpassed season 2 last episode. It now surpasses season 1 and 2 combined. As it stands season 3 will contain 45.5% of the still renders in the game and 44.5% of the animations, though the way animations were counted changed so this is a little unclear. Essentially after episode 8 he stopped counting each angle as an animation and started counting the combination of different angles as 1 animation.
These charts help explain some of the development time increase. Still renders this epsidoe are only around 750 short of the entire season one. Production time for season 1, 53 weeks. Episode 11 61 weeks.
That might seem bad but when you consider animations. Episode 11 contains 392 while season one contained 360. Even at the season one averages, animation production for these extra 32 would have added 4.7 weeks to production. So 57.7 compared to 61 which seems more reasonable.
Next we can see production week by episode. This speaks for itself.
Next is average still render production per week. This episode has continued the downward trend and now overtakes episode 10 as the lowest average still render production which itself was narrowly behind episode 1.
Finally animation production, it's slightly unfair to compare episodes 1-8 with episodes 9 to 11 due to the change in Pinks counting method. But we don't need these episodes to see quite clearly that the 60 fps decision has in fact significantly slowed production. During episode 10 some of the update was with the new 4090 cards and some was with the 3090's. Some were at 30fps and some at 60 fps. This resulted in a lower production speed than episode 9, and the first episode all on the new cards and call at 60 fps has dipped again. The second lowest average next to Episode 1.
So a very early forecast for next episode. If production size stays the same and he does a months of beta testing again May 29th 2026. Now it could be Pink upgrades to the 5090's once they are stable and not melting things, they seem to be around 30-40% so taking 35% as an average, he could hit 8.64 anaimations a week on average. Of course he hasn't done this yet, so it wouldn't be during the full production anyway. If it was starting from week one then he could hit 392 animations by January 16th.
So if content amount stays the same and no system upgrades, then late May 2026 and if production was abosulty optimal mid February 2026. For the sake of argument presuming a return to aorund 330 animations but no system upgrades, then a release late March is possible.
Overall i'd say next to no chance of episode 12 this year. He increased the number of animations by 10% from episode 9 to episode 10 and then 17% from episode 10 to 11. If he does that again, adding another 30-60 animations then we could easily be talking a July to August release.
