Cricco
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- May 5, 2021
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Mmmm.Good news: we get a lot of useful numbers! Bad news: we're still missing some important ones, and the uncertainty remains high. But let's not look gift numbers in the mouth!
DPC has created somewhere in excess of 700 static renders in the last 10 weeks, an average of more than 70 statics per week; overall, he's averaged ~109 statics per week since the Interlude launched. No new word on animations, but he had a total of 95 three weeks ago. We also know he completed at least 9 new ones last week, which is on par with our latest estimate of his overall animation render rate (8.6/week).
We now learn that he has completed 35-45% of the total statics and 40-60% of the total animations (these are obviously estimates, of course). For static renders the calculation is relatively simple: if we arbitrarily assume the current count is 1520, that gives us a target static render total between 3378 and 4343 - call it 3860 statics. For animations it's hazier: we could be anywhere between 104-122 animations (possibly even more), which gives us between 173-305 animations as a target. We'll call that 240, but it's a very variable 240. We can also smoosh the animation and static render percentages together to get an approximate completion percentage of ~45% (37-53%); that's an extremely speculative number since it's not clear the two should be given equal weight, but let's just go with it for now.
Throw all those numbers on are charts, scrape off the cobwebs, and what do we get?
If we go strictly by the static and animation charts, the game would probably release in early October: technically the statics would take until late January, but there's every reason to think the rate will increase substantially when DPC focuses on them. But that's the average case. If we take the optimistic view (3378 statics, 173 animations), DPC could finish the animations by late July and the statics around mid August; that's probably a late August release in practice (since there'd be less time to pick up the slack in static renders), but still a fairly rosy scenario. If we take the pessimistic view (4343 static, 305 animations), we're now looking at early November to complete the animations (and somewhere between that and February to complete the statics). That probably works out to a late November release.You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.
So overall I'd say these numbers generally confirm what we've already been thinking: the release window is somewhere between mid-August and the start of December. Personally, I feel slightly more optimistic this week since it does sound like DPC is still on course for a smaller animation count than Episode 8. That suggests that he's been at least somewhat successful in preventing Episode 9 from snowballing out of control which is the biggest risk to the timetable (both now and going forward). So I'd say the main takeaway is that we're making good progress and DPC does seem to have a finish line in mind now, but we're still at least a couple months out.
Mmmm.If we go strictly by the static and animation charts, the game would probably release in early October: technically the statics would take until late January, but there's every reason to think the rate will increase substantially when DPC focuses on them. But that's the average case. If we take the optimistic view (3378 statics, 173 animations), DPC could finish the animations by late July and the statics around mid August; that's probably a late August release in practice (since there'd be less time to pick up the slack in static renders), but still a fairly rosy scenario. If we take the pessimistic view (4343 static, 305 animations), we're now looking at early November to complete the animations (and somewhere between that and February to complete the statics). That probably works out to a late November release.
Mmmm.If we go strictly by the static and animation charts, the game would probably release in early October:
So, basically, in other words, what i believe you're implying is, if i'm not mistaken, that we're looking at 1 year between EP8 and EP9, all because of that trashass inked smurf Zoey.
Mmmm.
I'm glad.
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