- Jun 12, 2020
- 8
- 2
Similar to this, I think the current AVG economy based on Patreon is set for a crash and/or reevaluation. There's definitely a market for AVGs, both on the high-end and low-end, it's the middle that I think is going to get squeezed. Amateur, one-person, operations that are attempting ambitious games are going to fall by the wayside as the market professionalizes. Smaller or easier games that require lower-end systems or simpler coding will thrive, as will teams with larger more complex games. But games with months long development, with inconsistent releases, and uneven content, will fall out of favor. I don't see the market supporting games that cannot give a consistent high return on investment.My theory: In 2016-2018 the Renpy AVN scene started to explode and some developers started earning big money. Many of them cleverly invested resources into increasing the quality of their AVNs which further increased their profits. This "gold rush" created an (false) impression that anyone with access to Daz and basic grasp of coding can make easy money and this drew many copycats, seeking to make a quick buck with minimum effort.
Once these cash grabbers (who are driven by greed and not passion) see that the money doesn't actually start falling on them from the sky, they give up, leaving their games incomplete. I believe this period will end as well, and the developers who will survive are the ones with an actual desire to tell a (porn) story and patience to see their seeds bear fruit.
We ear this prediction every year, but it will probably never happen.Similar to this, I think the current AVG economy based on Patreon is set for a crash and/or reevaluation.
Amateurs are what created the scene in the early 70's, and what maintained it when professionals left it in the late 90's. I can assure you that they'll not disappear more surely now than they did in the past. As for the professionalization of the market, I really doubt that it will happen in a near future ; at least not more than it already is.Amateur, one-person, operations that are attempting ambitious games are going to fall by the wayside as the market professionalizes.
Have you see the games that studios have to release in order to survive ? Winged Cloud made one marvelous and innovating game, Sakura Dungeon. It's one of their best sell, and one of the favorite games on the scene, yet they felt back on easy going VN and never made another one after this. Peoples want more games like this, but there's not enough potential buyers for them to be cost-effective.Smaller or easier games that require lower-end systems or simpler coding will thrive, as will teams with larger more complex games.
Yet all the successful games on the scenes fall under this "months long development, with inconsistent releases, and uneven content" category. Those games exist and are successful precisely because of Patreon business model ; what is also the reason why it's not near to collapse.But games with months long development, with inconsistent releases, and uneven content, will fall out of favor. I don't see the market supporting games that cannot give a consistent high return on investment.
It's not so much that most newer devs are "Cash Grabbers". Some are sure! As is true with all groups. If you are just looking for a quick buck go flip burgers. That is a better bet than game development.My theory: In 2016-2018 the Renpy AVN scene started to explode and some developers started earning big money. Many of them cleverly invested resources into increasing the quality of their AVNs which further increased their profits. This "gold rush" created an (false) impression that anyone with access to Daz and basic grasp of coding can make easy money and this drew many copycats, seeking to make a quick buck with minimum effort.
Once these cash grabbers (who are driven by greed and not passion) see that the money doesn't actually start falling on them from the sky, they give up, leaving their games incomplete. I believe this period will end as well, and the developers who will survive are the ones with an actual desire to tell a (porn) story and patience to see their seeds bear fruit.
This is true for all things in life.Some good games always stop midway or the author disappears.
This is basically what I do. I've gotten burned too many times, helping fund promising looking games, only for progress to slow to a crawl or stop completely. I can't afford to just throw money at work-in-progress content in this recession. Edit: I do help fund the handful of devs who have a track record of producing and completing content such as Mister Dots, Doctor Pink Cake, and Sierra Lee. Others, I've just had to stop, such as ICSTOR, Gumdrop Games, SweGabe, Kompas and Arvus Games. They're just not consistent enough to drop money on, especially when they waste money on non game development projects such as cosplay shoots and physical merch *cough*SweGabe*cough*Statistically ~50% of all western games are bound to be abandoned or never be finished.
If you don't like the disappointment focus on completed games, this is probably a healthier way in general to enjoy western games.
also the amount of work is just guaranteed to surprise people. I've written 5-6 shitty books for my own entertainment, and writing a book is just nothing compared to making a VN. I've used more time making a single event than writing a book. VNs are exhausting to make even when you love what you do.The majority of people make games in their spare time and have to work a full time job. The gap between knowing how to do a little of something like art or programming and actually finishing a game is pretty massive.
I think writing is the hardest skill. It took a while before I could comfortably poop out 200+ pages but the amount of effort that goes into setting yourself up for it is one of the hardest and most satisfying parts. Then edits are a nightmare, you just rewrite and rewrite, check against your outline, and rewrite more. Edits take the longest but its mostly the easiest work imoalso the amount of work is just guaranteed to surprise people. I've written 5-6 shitty books for my own entertainment, and writing a book is just nothing compared to making a VN. I've used more time making a single event than writing a book. VNs are exhausting to make even when you love what you do.
As an avid reader and regular NaNoWriMo participant, writing comes fairly easily to me. However, I know jack about coding and living in a pretty rural farm area, I don't have access to high speed internet, To upload something with images (which is how I'd like to do it), it would take hours. It takes me an hour to download one gig and around five or six hours to upload that same amount.I think writing is the hardest skill. It took a while before I could comfortably poop out 200+ pages but the amount of effort that goes into setting yourself up for it is one of the hardest part and most satisfying parts. Then edits are a nightmare, you just rewrite and rewrite, check against your outline, and rewrite more. Edits take the longest but its mostly the easiest work imo
As an avid reader and regular NaNoWriMo participant, writing comes fairly easily to me. However, I know jack about coding and living in a pretty rural farm area, I don't have access to high speed internet, To upload something with images (which is how I'd like to do it), it would take hours. It takes me an hour to download one gig and around five or six hours to upload that same amount.
I really don't want to go down the text-only route but DAZ3D is expensive and I have zero artistic ability so I've just been put off on even starting.