Yeah, the scene at the bar is the biggest "they are the same" hint yet, maybe tied with Gabi thinking to herself "he looks like..." and later we see who she's thinking of.Navarro and the MC are placed side-by-side in Dylan's bar. Their faces and behavior (getting annoyed by Marauders' players) are similar.
When the MC is at the starting blocks of his race and Navarro the sports agent is watching him, he says to himself in his head, "why am I getting nervous all of a sudden?"
If the MC loses the race, Navarro gives him some (fatherly?) racing pointers.
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And as you say even if you lose he doesn't completly ignores the MC, "work on your start and you are gonna be ok" something along those lines, technical rather than fatherly advice i would say, but for whatever reason he took notice and empathized with the guy who finished 4th.
Technically you can remain on the Alexis path despite going training with Layla (the only way to win is to practice with Layla).
You lose one date with Alexis, miss one small scene with Iris and lose a scene where Erynn sees you with Alexis, those might be cool scenes but in the grand scheme of things the game carries on regardless.
Iris doesn't change her behaviour one bit, Erynn learns that you are still dating Alexis soon after(even if you haven't told her) and they end up making up with each other in her house on episode 10 anyway(no matter if they had this meeting or not that's when they start talking again)... and of course Alexis doesn't break up with you for training with Layla.
The only way to majorly piss Alexis off after reconnecting with her at her house is to delay telling Layla about her.
With that said winning or losing the race also doesn't affect the story in any major way either(you lose the opportunity to hook up with Tori).
Around chapter 8 Nyx(the dev) said we were around the middle, but things change during development so i wouldn't consider 16 a hard limit in any way.
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