Yeah, your points sounds reasonable.Rika/Liz IS gonna end up under Inoda too, there is 0 doubt about that, even if their interactions hadn't already become sexual and we didn't know Inoda does consider her hot but hatest her attitude and clearly wants 'revenge' for how she's treating him right now, she's basically setting herself up to fail anyway XP
And the thing is, if Kazuto was to just 'end' with Suguha after Inoda fully NTR-ed then it WOULD technically count as a happy ending for him, but there is no way Fujino would write an ending like that for a NTR game, if Suguha DOES indeed get him and doesn't just end up Hebishima's 'NTR' Bitch #100 as it originally seemed, it would be clearly against Kirito's will and without him realizing Asuna is already cheating on him too so he feels horrible and guilty because there is no way Fujino could let him be 'happy' in that way, and this is not even counting the existence of the 'Likes to be cucked' route still maybe affecting this (Which I still personally feel it's kinda forced but is probably because it's the first Fujino tries to write that particular fetish).
Finally, LOL, there is no way Alice is ending with Klein anymore, that may have been a possibility at first but now Fujino clearly established that would be the 'happy' route for her and that she's, as was previously theorized, gonna end up under the hands of the sex-trafficking ring so it also counts as 'NTR' just because he had her confess to that random dude she actually liked Kirito (Even less so than Suguha tbh, but as it technically counts as not-NTR for Klein maybe he thinks is valid too?). What most people weren't expecting was the 'cliche mind-control plot-device' thing being used for it :O
I just won't predict any plot of the story. I like whatever Fujino has presented so far, for all his game. more surprises than disappointment.