I understand that you say that "he won't try hard because the number of paying subscribers remains the same"...
but I think it doesn't make any sense. Logically, if he kept the same production pace as before, he wouldn't keep up with the current 3k, he would probably go from 7~10k paying subscribers.
so, deep down I believe that he is really facing problems, like bugs, difficulty in balancing time, personal problems, etc.
so, he is just stupid for not seeing the obvious, too proud to ask for help (or hire help), and overprotective of his own content... he only gets burned. he risks everything.