This update does feel like an inflection point. If it's good, AND L&P is somehow able to follow up with the next update within the next four months, he could see an explosion in patrons. But we all know that there's no chance for the next update to be released quickly; so what does that mean?
If this update is universally accepted as good, but it's the only update this year, I think he'll hold steady for the most part but he won't see much long-term growth. A surge in June and July that tappers off in August and flatlines through the Fall, that's how I envision it. Any potential decline in patrons won't occur unless the next update slips to February 2022.
If this update is disappointing, then all bets are off. If the discussion around this update is centered around its perceived shortcomings, and the next update is nowhere on the horizon, then I think he may see actual declines in patrons beginning in August. He would still get a short-term bump in June and July, but if word of mouth is bad and as August gives way to September without a new release, I think there may be some disgruntled patrons. Normally I think he could ride-out any bumps in the road, but with this update being so large, taking so long to develop, and being so hyped, I think there's a lot riding on it. And it isn't helped by the fact that the next update isn't expected any time soon, so v0.130 has to stick the landing.
If this update is disappointing, and yet his patron numbers continue to steadily creep upward, then he'll be pretty much bulletproof.
