Some good logic there especially as it comes at the end of the month (payday), however you have not included the L&P factor so you may need to add in some random weeks where they try something new or add video sequences or just go and lay out in the sunshine, maybe I've just been here too long and become very negative but hope you're right.
- Thread starter CobraSGT
- Start date
- Mar 28, 2017
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The first 2 were 85% before when there was only 4 progress bars.I am pretty sure with 6 bars,they are not 85% anymore.
- May 23, 2017
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- Oct 28, 2022
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Ok, make sense.
The first two (200%) weights 66.7% of 600%., so the rest 400% weights 33.3% of total work.
My math 7 weeks to cover the first two (170% of 200%) is not changed (see the previous calculation in my post.)
The rest 400% / 7weeks = 57.17 (now the factor is smaller)
33.3% of total 600% (100% x 6 sectors) is 199.8%.
199.8/57.17=3.5 weeks need for the rest of 400%
7 weeks plus 3.5 weeks equals 10.5 weeks.
The revised date would be the second week of August (by August 12).
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- Apr 4, 2023
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maybe the Highlander will see the end of this game lol
- Mar 19, 2019
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not sure the math is quite right there... that's 30% out of 600%. Over all progress is 5% of 100%, in 6 days... So... in about 4 more months it'll be done...?I'm gonna go take a nap, now
- Oct 28, 2022
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I think also you need to consider the first two takes 85% of total work (in 4 categories) that should covert to 66.7% in 6 categories now.
I'm gonna go take a nap, now
- Mar 28, 2017
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The major problem is the animation.Shouldn't be this already at 30% at least.
After all it is a whole month since previous update and that mysterious animator is still doing nothing?
At least for now creating and rendering scenes is still 85% of total work according to L&P.
Animations are done by someone else so shouldn't be count towards L&P progress.
Animations are done by someone else so shouldn't be count towards L&P progress.
- Feb 14, 2018
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Not so.
CS/RS is definitely less than 85% now, and has been for the last few updates. Agree with the second part. Per L&P the animations do not impact on the other areas of development, as he has someone doing the animations in parallel. Whether you believe that or not is up to you, but the last update didn't seem to be too much delayed because of animation.
In the last update the Testing and Final Coding took about three days and the update was released that same day (4/29/2023).
My estimation is that the circles represent CS 55% | RS 25% | PS 5% | P&T 12.5% | T&D 2.5% | Anim 0% (done in parallel) of the total work.
- May 20, 2018
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- Sep 27, 2019
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Progress Report Ver. 0.190. 20% - 15% - 0%
0% - 0% - 0%
- Oct 28, 2022
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My completion date range is in average statistically. If animation is in outsourcing, it would be good for speedy development.
Will see how fast the progress is moving and when is being released.
- Jul 3, 2021
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Pretty sure 0.185 saw the same progress on CS/RS at first until his "in-between specials" slowed everything down to a halt. We've also had the same ~3 weeks of nothingness beforehand, except this time it was apparently due to "personal stuff" rather than "preparing the writing/setting up scenes/clothing/lighting etc. for my animator" to prevent delays from animations.
Makes you question if the current cycle is gonna take longer, because L&P surely didn't have time to "prepare" everything as he wasn't working, right? That is if you want to believe the developers words.
Also worth noting that the script for 0.185 was, according to L&P, 16 pages of MS-Word after his preparations and planning, but ended up with 24 (or was it 27?) pages in the end. I'm guessing that's partly due to the unplanned "in-between specials" aswell, which makes me wonder if without those "specials", had animations delayed the update in the end as it would have been shorter overall? The animation progress bar reached 100% only days before release if I remember correctly (towards the end of his programming&translation phase), but the delay from his "in-between specials" was much longer. Now, all of this can be petty much ignored by those who don't believe the progress bars mean anything anyway, as he could have used his "in-between specials" statement as an excuse to stall for animation work for all we know. Who knows.
Animations should see some progress on the bars soon, otherwise I don't see how they're not gonna end up delaying the update considering we're 4 weeks into the current cycle.
Makes you question if the current cycle is gonna take longer, because L&P surely didn't have time to "prepare" everything as he wasn't working, right? That is if you want to believe the developers words.
Also worth noting that the script for 0.185 was, according to L&P, 16 pages of MS-Word after his preparations and planning, but ended up with 24 (or was it 27?) pages in the end. I'm guessing that's partly due to the unplanned "in-between specials" aswell, which makes me wonder if without those "specials", had animations delayed the update in the end as it would have been shorter overall? The animation progress bar reached 100% only days before release if I remember correctly (towards the end of his programming&translation phase), but the delay from his "in-between specials" was much longer. Now, all of this can be petty much ignored by those who don't believe the progress bars mean anything anyway, as he could have used his "in-between specials" statement as an excuse to stall for animation work for all we know. Who knows.
Animations should see some progress on the bars soon, otherwise I don't see how they're not gonna end up delaying the update considering we're 4 weeks into the current cycle.
- May 10, 2017
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is moving!!! but still 0% in animations.
I don't know if CS/RS is less than 85% or not.
I only quote what L&P has on Patreon
.You are all speculating on percentages when they mean Jack shit. Last update is an example of going up 15 percent in a day and then no movement for almost a month. The guy makes shit up as he goes. The fact you think he actually has worked out a schedule and sticks to it is hilarious
- Jul 3, 2021
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What I find to be quite insane about these downtimes is the fact that they're basically the same as they were back in 2021 when L&P would still release 1/3rd PD's. The same amount of downtime on average, except the content is pretty much cut in half per update compared to the 3 updates for PD12.
Assuming a 3 month cycle for the upcoming release would mean ~30% of time with absolutely nothing happening on his progress bars. That would translate to roughly 4 months per year (give or take a week or two). 4 out of 12 months without anything happening in one year of development on PD13 which only makes for roughly 50% of the entire PD.
Or in other words; If this PD ends up taking 24 months of development (which is yet to be seen), roughly 8 of those months did not see any progress on the bars. Hell, make it 7 months as not every update had exactly 30% downtime. Still, that's straight up crazy. lol
Assuming a 3 month cycle for the upcoming release would mean ~30% of time with absolutely nothing happening on his progress bars. That would translate to roughly 4 months per year (give or take a week or two). 4 out of 12 months without anything happening in one year of development on PD13 which only makes for roughly 50% of the entire PD.
Or in other words; If this PD ends up taking 24 months of development (which is yet to be seen), roughly 8 of those months did not see any progress on the bars. Hell, make it 7 months as not every update had exactly 30% downtime. Still, that's straight up crazy. lol
- Feb 14, 2018
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I'm not suggesting for one minute that the percentages even reach a Jack Shit level of credibility, but they are self-reported by the developer and pretty much the only thing we have to go on.
The biggest gap in reported progress from the last development cycle was seven days, from March 13 - March 19 (inclusive), well short of "almost a month". The development time and story progression in each update is piss poor. You don't need to exaggerate to make your point. The facts are bleak enough.
- Apr 24, 2021
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To be honest, there isn't much content to update once, and there aren't many animations either.