Naturally a good theory should be falsifiable, so I can give you some estimates. It would surprise me quite a bit if L&P abandons AWAM before the next 2 updates. I doubt his nest egg has already the size he wants it to, he still will have limelight, since the niche AWAM sits in has few other options and I think he still is in the phase where he rose-tints his motives for himself. For example"the 0.130 update has progress on most paths, I even opened up new ones!" That this progress is simply too slow and too small for the time since AWAM started and the time the update took, he turned much of this progress irrelevant for the storyline development and that he opened up new construction sites when he is already far behind schedule, L&P does not want to see.
The jogging scene with Dylan for instance was voided for storyline progress since it stopped at some gropping and walking arm in arm. That is something we already had one way or the other. Had the scene, which is only reachable with cheating(!) culminated in a somewhat chaste, somewhat hot (to impress the Hobos) kiss, which would have sent them somewhat reeling afterwards about what they did and how they feel, that would have pushed the Dylan story forward. As it happened that is simply a tiny step forward, not enough for a game out for 4 years and an update that took half a year. That is not slowburn any more, that is atrial fibrillation!
I do not speak much about the other halfbaked paths, like the old guys or the young boys, which are irrelevant for the wider story and crass especially in violation of the established canon! Wanking off minors, but being prudish nearly everywhere else (execept lesbian paths)up to this point? Was soll das? What does he want to show with this crap?
I estimate that L&P will abandon AWAM between late 2022-25, maybe 26. That depends on several factors we can better peg in the coming months. Oh by the way, I doubt we get another update this year. For that to happen L&P would need to have assistance he to this day strenously pushed away. It would be a major change, but since still as of this moment he did anything he could to slow down development, I only believe it when I see it.