Talcum Powder probably has the most data-based projection on a possible release date. The
last one predicted 3rd Dec.
I'm just wondering what the reaction is going to be if the release slips to the 12th or later. At that time this update will have taken longer than v.130, so all the predictions of things like first sex being 10 years away, Dylan's chance with Sophia being 20 years away, they all shift to an
even longer timeframe.
Especially since there are some rumblings of the game being abandoned in around 3-4 years.
Not that it matters much, but with the latest 70%-70% the projection is November 27th.
It could be even before that if it starts to get the pace he had at the beginning of August (Nathalie and Dylan's events) and the remaining Sam's event and Cathy's event are not too time consuming for the scene creation.
But who knows, these are mere academic speculations...
December seems still a safe bet
The ranch event is only Sophia and Patricia. Maybe a little of Patricia's friend Zoe. Neither Ellie or Dylan have events that day (but that's old information). I've heard that it's a full day event, but also that it's 3/4 of the day.
But if your estimate of the game fizzling out in 2024, we may not even get to it.
I could be wrong about this, but is the horseback riding event with Patricia an entire day? For some reason I have it in my head that Sophia, Patricia, and families, will be spending the entire day together at the ranch. If that's true, and if L&P isn't planning on changing that, I think that could be a really tough series of updates for him. I'm not super creative, but I have done some creative writing and I have been around creative people, and I've been mulling over the idea that being stuck at a ranch for (most) of a playable day could be really dull for L&P. If you look at his updates, they're full of difference scenes with different characters, doing different things. If I'm correct and the entire day is centered around the ranch, Patricia, and the family, I wonder if that will become sorta dull for L&P. If it does become dull, then we may see development slow even more as he has to really force himself to work on the game.
Yes you are right, that's exactly what he said here
We don't know if it will be a family event, from what he says it is centered on Sophia and Patricia.
And, again, without any evidence to support it, it's really hard to see how long or how complex it will be.
It can be a relatively short event (wrt the time span in which it occurs), centered only on Sophia and Patricia and, beside the main event between them, he may quickly gloss over the rest of the trip and move to the next event of the day (which is still unknown).
Mutatis mutandis, it could be a sort of Sam concert.
Or as you said it could be a tough one, where even new characters are introduced, new side stories etc. That, on one hand could be interesting because it offers many possibilities, on the other it will take more than one release to finish. And again new characters, new assets.... And/or, like Sam's concert, he could decide to move it to DLC.
Personally, I would more concern about all these DLCs than the ranch event as a sign of loss of interest. We all know that, realistically, these DLCs will never be made, unless he decides to abandon the game and give a final eye candy to the patrons.
Not that I'm against DLC, especially if they could be used to trim side stories and reduce the number of non essential events. And, ***in a ideal world***, DLC could be the perfect way for him to delegate part of the game to someone else. He can "train" someone to get small things done with his quality standard without the pressure of the game main release. And then with time she/he can help him later with the main game. But, obviously, we all know it's not gonna happen.
