If this is the pace of progress of update soon the day would come that Sophia will be a urban legend. And she will be part of nursery syllabus for upcoming generation " how not spoil your years in wating for game update."
- Thread starter CobraSGT
- Start date
- Apr 13, 2020
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I would agree that your method is more accurate to figure out renders per day if L&P's progress bars are also accurate. You use 4x 0% as an indicator that the developement of the new update has started, but you cannot be 100% sure that it is like that. You cannot say for sure when he actually starts developing, unless you trust the progress posts from L&P.
But everyone can check when he releases his updates and how many new renders are included. That are the only facts you can proof and trust.
I'm not sure but didn't L&P himself said that he works 11 hour a day, every day? When some people talked about how he would take a 2 week break after every update, he denied it and said that in this 2 weeks he would answer mails and other stuff beside rendering.
L&P posts for every new update the approximate release date with the render count. So he uses the number of renders as an indicator on how big/long a update is. And I use this information to track his developement speed over the time by calculating the average renders per day for every update. It is just an simple illustration.
Most likely he has done more renders that didn't end in the game, and some renders can take more time as others. Also he doesn't just only do renders, there is also scripting, programming etc. And as you said he probably doesn't work 365 days a year, most of us would agree on this.
But nobody but himself can tell how much he works, how many renders he does and so on. The only information you can check is the release dates and render count for the updates.
People can check with the data I collected, if the developement speed got slower or faster in a certain timespan (no matter what reasons caused it). It's a useful information for people who consider to support him financially or are already doing it. They should at least know what they are getting into.
- May 15, 2022
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Maybe it's my crappy English, so I'll try again.
When you're calculating his renders per day here, you're treating weekends as regular work days. When some people here say he's been taking two weeks off between updates, they're treating weekends as workdays (as if they assume the dev has to work on weekends). You're not new here, so I'm pretty sure you've seen this - when he didn't update his progress report for 1 day last week - some people here started with "is not moving today", basically expecting him to work 31 days a month. If you've been aware this month, he had updated his progress report almost each and every day - implying he had been working at weekends.
I know very well what you mean by "vocation days", but he doesn't have a proper employer and his vocations aren't regulated. So please tell me what's the difference between:
1. working 5 days a week + taking 20 days vocation (resulting with 124 days a year in which a person isn't doing work), and
2. working 7 days a week + taking 124 days vocation.
In terms of work days per year those 2 very different scenarios are exactly the same.
It's perfectly fine to expect him to work 7 days a week/30.5 days a month, but then you must allow him the same "days off of work" as you and most people in the western world have - which is 120-124...
The renders per day thing is not an exact science but it's used to be able to somewhat quantify his development speed because the only 100% facts we have when it comes to the games development speed are the release dates and the renders we get on release day.
quency77 explained it better than me a couple of posts above.
Edit: It's of course possible to remove the weekends from the calculation but that would be pointless because the entire point is to roughly estimate his development speed to easily see if he got faster or slowed down and that wouldn't change by removing the weekends.
I know, and I don't suggest you (or anyone else) should make this calculation differently.
But quency77 also noted that not all renders were born equal. Last update was mostly Dylan and Amber, for more than half of the renders, and it had a better renders per day. This time it's at least 4 characters for most if not all of this update.
Also by comparing his render per day two years ago or more to his pace today we should take the quality change into consideration.
He also got more experience and better hardware which should have at least compensated for the increase in quality but the fact is that he slowed down.
In terms of better equipment, he always said that scene creation is the bottle neck, not the rendering itself, and the better equipment has very small benefit for scene creation. But you're right here, that he had been slowing down a bit.
- Feb 14, 2018
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"My way" doesn't make him significantly faster or slower, his self-reporting determines that. The progress bars, for the two years (ot more?!! I've forgotten) I've been tracking them, have proven to be a moderately reliable predictor of when he's going to reach 4x100% development.
I have never once said I believe the progress reports are accurate or meaningful. They are self-reported by L&P, who has proven over the years to be unreliable and inconsistent. If he says he started development (4x0%) on a certain date, we can easily figure that time between the prior release and the first progress report he was taking time off. Whether you or anyone else thinks taking 11 days between the end of a 45-day development cycle and beginning the next is a well earned vacation, is purely an individual opinion.
To sum up: I am not making a positive or negative statement about any of it and am not trying to make L&P or anyone else look better or worse. I'm just trying to figure out approximately when the next release is going to come out because it is by a factor in the hundreds the most common question on F95, let alone this particular game thread.
And finally, in reference to the development post shared earlier today: If he releases on 8/25 or 8/26 then that's very much in line with the progress reports. If he releases on 8/30 he's either adding in some last minute animations (which aren't included in the progress updates to my knowledge) or he's going on a four-day fuckabout before publishing.
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It's preferable 2 update per year with an enjoyable progress of storyline, current ones updates for showing the same progress or less is quite short than before.
In the beginning the development was good, now is junk.
In the beginning the development was good, now is junk.
25th to 30th? looks like he's taking his 2 week break early.
If you prefer to play the game only about every half year, which i consider to be a wise decision, then maybe just do that and skip some updates if necessary.
- Sep 28, 2018
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All renders aren't created equally. Renders with multiple people take longer to set up, because you just have more to do with posing. And he likes his details. And they'd take longer to render too. And now I'm going to dismiss this because his hardware and skill level is plenty high enough to make quicker progress.
So why doesn't he make quicker progress?
The story is too complicated. Writing isn't part of his graph he posts, besides the translation, but I'd bet he has to spend a lot of time trying to figure out the story. It has a lot of routes and a lot of characters.
And yes, technically, he is doing 1 event per update. But that doesn't mean he doesn't still have to figure out the larger story beyond this update.
He does and has always (for the most part) produced enough renders quick enough. Like I said, he is skilled and has good hardware.
He just packs a lot of those renders into a relatively small portion of the day. So despite the number of renders being acceptable, the actual progress those renders make in the story is pretty small. Whenever this day is complete, it'll have over 1k renders. Probably closer to 1.5k. For just a single day. That could be 2-3 days worth of renders, if he'd be more efficient. But that probably isn't possible because of the story/route complexities.
So why doesn't he make quicker progress?
The story is too complicated. Writing isn't part of his graph he posts, besides the translation, but I'd bet he has to spend a lot of time trying to figure out the story. It has a lot of routes and a lot of characters.
And yes, technically, he is doing 1 event per update. But that doesn't mean he doesn't still have to figure out the larger story beyond this update.
He does and has always (for the most part) produced enough renders quick enough. Like I said, he is skilled and has good hardware.
He just packs a lot of those renders into a relatively small portion of the day. So despite the number of renders being acceptable, the actual progress those renders make in the story is pretty small. Whenever this day is complete, it'll have over 1k renders. Probably closer to 1.5k. For just a single day. That could be 2-3 days worth of renders, if he'd be more efficient. But that probably isn't possible because of the story/route complexities.
The ranch event is not the only event of that day.
I guess there will be one or two events, probably very short events.
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- Sep 27, 2019
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Progress Report Ver. 0.170.
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- Sep 23, 2020
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Regarding the 11 hrs a day, i think it is heavily misinterpreted on the thread. He said that when he was working on v0.130. He was extremely late with the update back then ( already delayed by 2 months from his predicted release date ) and was working extra to give out the update. Doesn't mean he will work all his life 11hrs a day.
It is just like a Company who is doing double shift to meet a huge sales order. Once the order is completed they revert to single shift. Now you can't judge their output from single shift with the Time they worked when they were doing double shift.
Again I wasn't saying your method of calculation is outright wrong but just that it has it's drawbacks too. And it's true no one can actually say how much he works. But let's say even if he does have a genuine reason for the update not progressing, like suppose he is actually sick, how many here will actually beleive it and not call it a vacation and bullshit. So why even give an explanation that no one cares about. People will only believe what they want to believe.
So it is nice of you to create such a well detailed chart. Also there are 2 corrections that you can make to it based on what i saw. v0.160 has 513 renders not 524 and similarly v0.161 has 140 renders and not 144. You are counting the key renders from the animation too in your count which is infact renders made on blender, so basically not by L&P and also they don't form part of the render count, even according to L&P.
If you check the summary on his patreon as well regarding the no. Of Renders in the update it is 513 and 140 only.
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- Sep 27, 2019
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Progress Report Ver. 0.170.
100% - 100%
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100% - 100%
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- Mar 14, 2020
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- Jun 27, 2020
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LoL run now yes this update will be faster the chubby one reached the finish line