He has averaged 4.3 animations since September. This is low.
On the 5th January he confirmed 63 completed animations. This included a bunch that had been done during the polish and beta testing as well as over christmas. If we count 5th January as 0 and take 63 from the overall total we get this 323-63=260. 260 Animations over 49 weeks is an average of 5.3 a week.
He has 66 animations to complete. At 5.3 a week he will finish rendering in 12 weeks or 7th March. If he only manages 4.3 (things may speed up once the still renders are cleared) it will take 15.3 weeks, rounding that down a little to 15 gives us 28/03/2025. I think there is an outside chance of render completion in February but relistically a release much before April will need a very quick polish and beta period. Frankly every time i've given him the benefit of the doubt with these forecasts it's ended up being the slower end of expectation, but things could speed up a bit. I think a release is Feburary is all but impossible now, a release in March is 25% and 75% in April.
I think in September I said February 7th plus beta testing. I dont think that will happen now. A reminder that when Pink says he rendering at 60FPS is just as quick this is bullshit. He hit 335 animations on the last episode on week 48. This epsiode he is at 323 on week 53.
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If you want to be an optimist then maybe now the big animation is done, things will speed up in general, and when the stills are done this will add a boost as well. It could be a bit sooner.