allanl9020142
Well-Known Member
- Aug 23, 2018
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7.5 animations per week. That's a big "Ouch". Also that long animation was finished at the start of September? Jeez, I could've sworn that it was at the end. Why is that whole month just a blank for me?I think you all know how much I like numbers, so let's dig in! DPC has completed 450 static renders in the last 14 days and 30 animations in the last 33 days. That gives him an average of 225 statics/week and 6.4 animations/week over those respective timeframes. We can also clock his current overall average at ~147 statics and 7.5 animations per week since the Interlude was released. In addition, we learned the estimated total static count is now 4800 (slightly down from my guestimate of 4827). We also learned animations there are 50-80 animations left to animate (plus 29 in the render queue), giving us an average total target of 325. Combine all those numbers, give a upward trend on the animation completion rate to account for the supposed delay while completing the uber-complex animation at the start of September and we get the following charts:
I think both the good news and the bad news is obvious from the charts. The good news is we finally have not only something to plot but some reasonable target numbers and a solid road map, so we have a *much* better idea where we are relative to the finish line. The bad news is that the animation gap is still gigantic. Assuming DPC maintains a pace of 8 animations per week from here on out, that means he'd hit our 325 animation target just before New Years (with the first week of December being the rosiest scenario and January 13 corresponding to the maximum animation count).You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.
Now before anyone starts panicking, it's entirely feasible DPC will accelerate the animation pace as other aspects of the update are completed; he's previously hit 10/week early in Episode 9's development, and he's had rates in the high teens during earlier episodes. So I still think a November release is a realistic scenario. But it's no guarantee. I'm not even sure it's the most likely outcome at this point. Ideally we'd get some updated numbers soon to help dial in the estimates, but that seems highly unlikely. So we'll just have to find ways to remain sane as we wait another month for further news, be it good or ill.
If it comes out in January then, man. I ... yea. That's excessive. Don't get me wrong, I don't feel like I'm owed jack shit or anything but I also don't have an obligation to closely follow something that'll only come out once in a blue moon.
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