Partly true. Gacha jpeg collectors were the easiest cheapest money earners around 2015-2020 but since then even gacha games are evolving to be more of an actual game because there are so many of them now they have to put in the slightest amount of effort and money to compete. It's easy to see the top 50-100 gacha earning bank with low effort games but then you don't see the tens of thousands of other gachas that are dead and failing horribly losing more money than they make. Meanwhile games that are just pay and buy will end up making more than these gacha ever will. There are a lot of jrpg with relatively low budgets but still full games then they might pad some extra money with dlc costumes which honestly im fine with. Yea really if it's already created it should just be in the game but a few extra dollars for a costume in a 40+ hour jrpg is nothing compared to games that you have to buy and then pay constant fees to unlock anything like this game is going to be.
Normal games fail as well, it is far harder to make good normal game and return profit then gacha. Obviously market saturation is a thing and that is the one thing that is saving us from getting overrun by live service games.
Really it's all speculative and you can only use intelligence to predict what should be basic logic of the game. In my mind with logic there is not going to be a playerbase who are willing to buy this game for 30-40 dollars then straight away need to buy a battlepass to unlock any content then continue that every few months to have a "game" when there are other games out there which are animation simulators too like honey select where with the huge effort of opening discord you can get infinite new characters instead of paying for it through a battlepass. It's not an untouched market the thing about porn games is you buy the game you unlock all the shit and you use it then quit. Who is the target market of people who want to buy a game full price pay constant microtransactions to unlock other basic characters and then grind for hundreds of hours to unlock 1 animation? It just doesn't exist by any logic at all lol. I think it had some potential like instead of grinding for hours by being a cuck watching others use different animations you actually grinded a single player game part of the game and then had the battlepass for unlocking premium content it could have been passable but it's literally an animation simulator with 2 maps and 3 characters. Again I can open up honey select 2 with next gen skin have better graphics infinite maps infinite characters way more animations with people modding more animations for free why would I ever pay in to this lol?
You are using some extreme hyperbole there. Let's start that game will be free, i don't recall what exactly is in the free version now but you will be able to join harem and preview what people are doing. Classic trick - look at the toys others have, you can have them too if you pay.
You say people won't spend money meanwhile the beta release made a big spike on Helius patreon from people buying into beta, beta for free game!
The aspect of unlocking stuff/scenes - that is something that can kill gacha game. If it is too hard people will quit before you can convert them to spenders, if it is too easy then they won't need to spend.
You mention Honey select - just how much time and money was spent to develop the mods to where they are now? next gen skin is a paid mod i believe. You will often run into situation that stuff doesn't look as it was on the screenshot when loading other people stuff. There aren't that many "in game" animations and they easily break/look bad based on character proportions.
Despite all the work put into uncensors the penetration is still crap, dick is clearly shrinking rather then going in and if you disable that you will have it go where it shouldn't in some anims (maybe it's fixed now ). To really have fun with HS you need to go into Studio Neo but that requires a lot of effort to set your scenes up there.
Also people want out of box experience, people actually pay dude to put a bunch of mods together and keep updating so they don't have to.
Ok.. back to topic ... while i agree Honey Select 2 is good alternative there is plenty of reason why people are interested in FD:OL.
This game only has 1 extreme niche going for it and it's the monster porn. But if you try to google that shit and find out how little is ever created you will see it's not popular and not a selling point. I know I may be proved wrong and the game may do crazy well but that's not because my logic is wrong it's because the world is full of retards who will pay insane amounts for something that they can get for free in different porn games. Regardless I stand by what I said in the fact I believe this game would have done infinitely better if it stuck to a porn xcom where you unlock from an actual game then enjoy the adult content on the side. Even sticking a battlepass in that would of been acceptable but there is not acceptance scrapping the entire game making it 100% only animation simulator and then trying to charge more than ever for it won't accept anyone trying to defend it.
Not only one but yes it is big appeal. Monster porn is not popular ? what? you check the games posted here maybe ? Google probably not best source given problematic nature of monster stuff.
Regarding abandoning campaign - Helius had question in his poll about what people want to get developed more - campaign or more animations. I think that most people voted for animations that is why he outright said campaign is scrapped rather then pretending it is still being worked on.