That's selective butterfly effect. You make a lot of choices but only the ones related to Valeria can change that event, which is happening in the same place in both cases
I think most of the time this game makes good use of the butterfly effect, but this is one of the weirder ones.
John has a different schedule for no discernible reason and Valeria... was she stalking us? Because even before things went south she wasn't invited to that particular event... if we a have a "bad" relationship(which isn't actually bad/spiteful, just no interest) she takes a look and thinks "not getting involved in that"?
So i do think it's one of the worst butterflies yet, imo.
Usually there's a good logical reason, train with Layla>win the race.
Go with Nikki for a run... find Valeria also running, makes sense, that's a habit of her.
Go with Cara to the park... see Iris there, also an old habit of her.
Plus the scene just makes a bit more sense with John, since he ends up involved in that plot anyway(and the fight is about his "daughter").