Unity Pizza Hot! [v0.13f] [Abelius]

[Severthe]

Last reply from me on this because I don't want to keep dragging the thread off-topic.

Winning the lottery is a rare event, but a single person winning the lottery five times in a row is astronomically rare. That's where epidemiology and statistics play a role. If you knew basic math, you wouldn’t be making that "argument."

Abelius constantly citing serious, low-probability personal tragedies as an excuse for delays follows the same principle. Someone might have cancer, someone else might be divorced, someone else might have depression, another maladaptive daydreaming. The probability of each single event happening in isolation is plausible, but when stacked together without a clear pattern, it becomes highly suspicious. And buddy, if you haven't seen all of the rollercoasters that have been going on in this thread, I don't know what to tell you.

You tried to generalize my argument, but you failed to account for conditional probability. Aka, the likelihood of multiple specific events occurring to the same person under suspicious circumstances.

> "Oh, your dad died from a shark attack at the age of 35 when you were 7? Well, the probability of being attacked by a shark for someone under 40 years old is this number, which is much less probable than being killed in a car accident, so do you really expect me to believe this bullshit?"

A shark attack is a random, external event with no direct incentive or motive.

In contrast, a game developer coming up with constant excuses to delay work is an intentional action with a clear pattern of behavior and motive: avoiding accountability.

A better analogy would be someone claiming to win the lottery five times in a row while refusing to provide the winning tickets. But you can't come up with a better analogy because you know...

Either you don't understand, or you’re purposefully ignoring that the discussion isn’t about isolated probability but about detecting patterns in behavior, which, everyone here detected

> "And the cherry-on-top is that your citation for all these 'scientific' 'facts' and numbers is 'epidemiology which I studied back in Uni.' Like, what? That doesn’t even make sense. Either you have an actual source of data for your numbers, or you don’t."

So, instead of addressing the numbers, you dismiss them by mocking the source?

Even if my original argument lacked a formal citation, that does not automatically invalidate the logic behind statistical analysis.

A better reply from you would have been to provide counter-evidence showing that such a series of events is more common than initially assumed. But you don't do this.

This is what pseudo-intellectualoids consider "a fallacy of argument from ignorance": I don’t see the data, so your argument must be wrong.

> "At the end of the day, could Abelius be lying about this? Sure, it’s possible. But nothing in your post is proof of that in any way."

If someone repeatedly claims highly improbable tragedies while delaying work, the burden of proof shifts to them to provide credibility. Usually, in legal and financial situations, those kinds of patterns of unlikely excuses (which, statistically, we say are suspicious) are grounds for investigation.

If someone calls in sick to work once, it’s normal. If someone calls in sick every week with different rare illnesses, and when they run out, comes up with more outlandish situations, well, buddy, that's suspicious.

You know, skepticism is justified when patterns defy normal statistical expectations. And this is the case.

You misunderstand probability, dismiss valid skepticism, and you can't even use basic logic to defend the guy.

Sources:

1. Risk of Breast Cancer in Women Aged 40–44:

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2. Annual Rate of Major Depressive Episodes in Men:

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3. Incidence of Parental Child Abduction by Mothers After Divorce:

You must be registered to see the links

You totally missed my point. I never argued that you can't reasonably come to your own conclusions about Abelius's trustworthiness based on a pattern of behavior. My point was that your post multiplying a bunch of probabilities together proves absolutely nothing about whether he is lying or not.

Your argument that Abelius is constantly announcing new reasons for delays and that this is suspicious is (if true) actually an argument with some weight behind it for distrusting Abelius's announcement (though it's important to recognize it doesn't prove Abelius is lying, only makes an argument for it). But the multiplying together probabilities and saying "see, this is way too unlikely" adds nothing to the scales in either direction for all of the reasons I gave in my original post.

So, instead of addressing the numbers, you dismiss them by mocking the source?

My point about your numbers being unsourced was not the primary reason I was dismissing them, it was a side point. My main point was always the above.

A better reply from you would have been to provide counter-evidence showing that such a series of events is more common than initially assumed. But you don't do this.

And no. There is no onus on other people to provide counter-evidence against no evidence. If I told you that 1 in 5 deaths in the US in 2022 was from heart disease, and that I know this because I studied it/work in the field, I have not actually provided any evidence for it. I've just stated it. And as I'm a random anon on a hentai game forum, it would be completely reasonable for you to dismiss my statement out of hand, and a waste of your precious time here on Earth to go looking for counter-evidence to a random statistical statement with no citation made by an anonymous person. Now that heart disease fact happens to be true and have a reliable source (the CDC) that backs it up, but that is irrelevant to you unless I actually cite the source.

I do appreciate that you now have given some sources for your numbers. But as I said, this point was just a side point to my main criticism that I've reiterated above.

Peace o/

 

[Tasty Walrus]

TLDR, is it abandoned or not? Does abelius still exist?

 

[Severthe]

TLDR, is it abandoned or not? Does abelius still exist?

I'm pretty sure Abelius said he has no plans to stop, so I assume the game development will continue trickling along at roughly the same pace as before.

 

[Latetoparty]

My guy is earning over 3000 a month for doing next to nothing, why on earth would he stop now?
Love him or hate him, you gotta respect the hustle.

 

[jackdanniels]

earning over 3000 a month

Abelius didn't point a gun at his Patreon's heads and said "Pay me to do nothing, mother fucker, or die!"... Right? I mean, there are a lot of people that love to be scammed. So Abelius deserves this money and these dumb fucks deserve the scam.

 

[TheUberstuff]

Abelius didn't point a gun at his Patreon's heads and said "Pay me to do nothing, mother fucker, or die!"... Right? I mean, there are a lot of people that love to be scammed. So Abelius deserves this money and these dumb fucks deserve the scam.

Sorry a dev that scams people doesn't deserve shit.

 

[jackdanniels]

Sorry a dev that scams people doesn't deserve shit.

and people that accept being scammed also don't deserve shit. If they stop paying him, I bet he would keep doing his work to attract new patrons. The submissive scammed gives him comfort to do nothing, that's why this game, and tons of others never get finished, some people are retarded and willing to give money to a scammer.

 

[GordoFaper]

If only his paypigs actually cared about their money...

 

[TheUberstuff]

and people that accept being scammed also don't deserve shit. If they stop paying him, I bet he would keep doing his work to attract new patrons. The submissive scammed gives him comfort to do nothing, that's why this game, and tons of others never get finished, some people are retarded and willing to give money to a scammer.

Except thats not what you said. You said the dev not doing any work deserved the money they scammed out of people. That makes you a horrible person. Are some people Naïve to the point where they give someone money when they shouldn't? Of course there are and I constantly post on any forum I find where I believe that is the case to educate people on the dangers of blindly supporting ANYONE who just asks for money without doing anything for it.

You are a horrible person because you seem to think that ALL people who donate, give money to someone are being suckers on purpose. You know what I hope? I hope something happens to you where you need money and set up a go fund me account ask complete strangers for money and then I will post on that page YOUR EXACT WORDS about how people loved to be scammed and deserve to be scammed. Then I hope that EVERYONE who had considered helping you out decides that YOU are not worth their time or money.... its called KARMA.

Now I do think there are a lot of people out there who if once educated about scammers still let themselves be scammed then that is on them.

You have a nice day now, you hear?

 

[jackdanniels]

My butt is hurting because of what you said

 

[stiumush]

Well, Abelius is really active in his discord page.

 

[jackdanniels]

Well, Abelius is really active in his discord page.

Obviously, this is his true work, keeping convincing their patrons that he is working on the game. Why doesn't he come to f95zone to have a one-on-one with us like the serious devs? He can convince his cows that is important to give him milk for free, but not us.

 

[Limit0815]

Obviously, this is his true work, keeping convincing their patrons that he is working on the game. Why doesn't he come to f95zone to have a one-on-one with us like the serious devs? He can convince his cows that is important to give him milk for free, but not us.

He already did that and then deleted himself because he couldn't deal with the criticism.

 

[stiumush]

Obviously, this is his true work, keeping convincing their patrons that he is working on the game. Why doesn't he come to f95zone to have a one-on-one with us like the serious devs? He can convince his cows that is important to give him milk for free, but not us.

Beh... mine is just an observation, not a defense of Abelius eh, i'm not his brother or his dad...

 

[KamaelOx120]

I waited a long time for this game to come back

 

[GreatestDerp]

Me when i go to my 9-5 while i could build a half arsed game with the monthly apology how i could not work on the game as my pc was taken away by my grandmother after i stole her wooden leg.

 

[kangnuonuo]

Just you haters wait, he's gonna come rolling in with the most masterfully developed goon masterpiece and you're all going to be stroking your cocks with a tearful eye saying "B-but he's a scammer..." I'm telling you bruh my moneys been on Abelius since day one bruh

 

[pinkpiratt]

Just you haters wait, he's gonna come rolling in with the most masterfully developed goon masterpiece and you're all going to be stroking your cocks with a tearful eye saying "B-but he's a scammer..." I'm telling you bruh my moneys been on Abelius since day one bruh

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he say v0.14 will come out in January. and we dont have 0.14 and no one hear from him at all and he cant ever see when 0.14 is coming out so yes people think he is a scammer and you dont get news from him at all

 

[9m4k3l]

Even though the game is good and has a good story, I don't think there will be any more updates. It's already March and there haven't been any updates for the game yet. So we can say that this game is abandoned. It's a shame, because it's a very promising game.

 

[Finntroll]

he say v0.14 will come out in January. and we dont have 0.14 and no one hear from him at all and he cant ever see when 0.14 is coming out so yes people think he is a scammer and you dont get news from him at all

If I remember correctly, he didn't say which year he meant...