At this point, everything is pure speculation. What he says and what he does is vastly different anymore, so going by what he says is a fool's errand. I would love to say, "Hey, he learned from his mistakes and will do better." but that is likely not going to happen. Apparently, all he has to do is claim progress is being made and people will suck it up, despite missing practically every deadline anymore.
You have to do the "Rule of 4th" with him now. Promised update will be 1/4 as big and take 4 times longer than anticipated.
Though we might get another update around Easter, as Freki pointed out, I have a gut feeling it will be small. That is, if he does not do what he normally does and feed more excuses for delays.
I would honestly love for him to get back on track, and more importantly, prove this whole post wrong. I just do not have a lot of faith that is going to happen. I would not go by his dates, as you will either get a very small update that misses the former quality, or fed more lines why it was delayed. EDIT: Sometimes both!