That's a fair and accurate assessment.
AWAM never set out to be a porn game, instead as you point out, more an (sophistically illustrated) erotic novel. So it really should be judged on that. Something that's never been accepted by those simply seeking instant gratification from sexual imagery with short, transparent story lines.
It remains a benchmark game in this respect, head and shoulders above others in this category, its overall success well deserved. Yet while there's many facets to this game (discussed daily on this platform, and in your post) urgent for attention and improvement, its creator appears determined to remain stubborn and unresponsive. This we might have to unwillingly accept, is his way.
Despite all, I honestly believe L&P is solidly behind this enterprise and we should not forget to continue offering praise among the criticism.
We still don't know who, among the male characters, will have the honor of being the first. We don't even know whether that
"[...] it will be something no one will definitely expect at the moment!" is still valid as it is old and the story has moved on a lot since then. So we don't know if at this point or close to when it will happen it will still be **something** unexpected.
But beside this, I think that for how the male characters and their story lines with Sophia has been laid out Sam would be likely the one that will have the honor multiple times (***not the first***, but once he does there will be more).
His story line is clearly told as the romantic/passion one, he is "seducing" Sophia touching all her weak spots, especially those of her younger years.
The rock band, the music (guitar/cello), the poetry, the common passions and so on. Sophia clearly likes him, at first just as the "good sweet boy" from his childhood and now as a growing man.
She's flattered by his teenager advances, she likes to tease him and, again, with the common interests he is making her romantically reliving her younger years that ended maybe too quickly when family and other responsibilities happened.
So it is likely that, step by step, Sophia's efforts at being rational will fade away and she will let the passion take over, as it has already happened in the pool. And once they get at it, it is likely that after the classic "it was a mistake", again in the hope that rationality prevails, she will fall again in the arms of passion and they explore their connection more than once.
I'm not saying that they will get into a real relationship, that she will destroy the family to be with him, probably it will even stop at some point, one way or another, but it won't be a one thing either.
And, sure enough, in terms of realism, it's difficult to believe that an inexperienced man will do wonder for an experienced and mature woman. That is a classic trope of this kind of literature, but reality is quite different, at least in general.
We'll see if and how the matter is addressed, but here I think that L&P will focus more on the mix of the passion and the eroticism.
For the other male characters, it seems to me that most of them are more in for a one time thing.
Whatever happens with the old gents, the apostles, the mailman(!), Logan &C, Vicky's or Nathalie's boyfriend, the janitor, Bennet, Andy and the museum guys is bound to be something "in the spur of the moment" driven by the lust or the buildup of the erotic moment/event she will find herself in.
And probably that's where the lucky first one can be found according to that "prophecy".
But with the information we have at the moment it's difficult to tell that there will be a follow up with any of them (let alone we don't even know that something will actually happen with any of them).
The counter example is obviously Aiden &C, we still can't exactly figure out his angle with Sophia, all options are still on the table, from no sex with her (still difficult to believe) to full sex, even to a table-turning hate-fuck by Sophia (
GingerSweetGirl had this interesting take). And as it has been said, the moment it happens it weakens the blackmail, so maybe it's for the final task(s)?
Admittedly Zack could have a similar path as Sam, the sweet guy and favorite student of the class. But for the moment the story line is much less developed than Sam to think that it could have a similar outcome.
Finally, Dylan is obviously a special case. Clearly it is bound to happen with him down the road, most probably he won't be the first one. As for their relationship, everything took a sudden change in the last PD with the park event in which Sophia started to look at him not just as the children, often immature, but more like a grown man on which she can rely.
At least that is what the event tried to convey (not so convincing and a little bit too much cliché IMO).
This is a tough one to predict. It is possible that there will be more than a single encounter but IMO it really depends how we will get there. It could be the final and defining moment of a long buildup or it could go down to a similar road as Sam's, with obviously much more internal conflict and "drama" given their relationship. In ***terms of realism*** it would be difficult (IMO) to tell a different story than many other VN on the same theme. Sure you don't want to focus on the inner drama and trauma of the aftermath, it's an AVN after all
So (IMO) it is interesting how L&P will address the issue, whether it will follow the classic paths that most of the other games take or he will try to find his own way (well, it seems quite the rhetorical question
).