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I don't think it's a race at all where you can say one has an advantage over the other. Actually, I recognize the writing style where you create all the story's plot climaxes and in the final chapters bring everything to a crisis point. What I am betting on is all the key characters will be brought to the point where anyone will be the first to get Sophie's cookie. So, the only real questions that remain is who they are next and just how far are going to get before the developer moves onto the next in line. And I so hope I am dead wrong.
Now if I was writing the story, I would build in hints at something then drop a plot twist. There are a lot of possibilities left to work on. But the best way is to introduce causal content, as if they were side stories that further the main dirrection of the overall story.
Let's say there is an Ellie/Dylan ending. I wouldn't be so blunt as making a scene where it's obvious. Think back when Dylan helped Ellie with her PC or when they were talking on the swings. Sure, those two events say "maybe" an Ellie/Dylan connection down the road at this stage, but that whole story arch isn't ready to have them two together. How things could work to getting Ellie/Dylan closer would be another shower scene between Ellie and Sophia and they talk about men in general; Sophia could accidently mention just how good a boy Dylan is in such way that it gets Ellie to rethink how she sees Dylan. It'll take several small events to move Ellie/Dylan along. Those kind of plot twists work with any other combinations.
Still I hope there are just some out of the blue surprises along the way
I think Dylan's hope here lies more with Christine. Even if nothing much happens between Dylan and Christine themselves, she can indirectly give Ellie a new perspective on Dylan. I could well imagine that L&P will continue on the same path as before and give Dylan a chance to show himself as a supportive or protected person.
It is difficult to speculate about the content of the next update without a preview. For L&P tendencies with scenes involving water, I could imagine the group deciding to go in the pool together in their underwear, ... Alternative, since we just had an event with water, I could also imagine that there is a sauna at the party, ...
I'm hoping for a twist, too. At some point, an risky ewent has to be seen by someone else. The whole story would then have a lot of possibilities for entanglements and for more connected events in the future. For example, what if Dylan can observe one of the events between Ellie and Sophia. This could then also give Dylan progress with Ellie that would otherwise not be possible.
