- Dec 12, 2017
- 954
- 1,624
Your math is sound, except for the starting point at least when it comes to finances. When you are given 2 estimates that create a low end and high end limit, and they happen to be 300% !!!! apart than they aren't estimates that can be used in any credible way and you default to the lowest amount that you know is for certain.Firstly I’m not complaining about how much he makes. I enjoy the game a lot and more often than not have a low tier subscription to his Patreon.
Secondly, let’s say say $29k+$88k=$117k/2=$58500 as an average.
Let’s say 15% for all the fees you mentioned (had a look, that seems fair to me)
$58500*0.15=$8775
$58500-$8775=$49725
$49725*24(months)=$1,193,400
So my estimate was out by about $6,600 and still over a million just in the last 2 years. Not counting steam and not counting GoG and not counting Acting Lessons or the first 3 years of his Patreon. Yes, I think it is both fair and safe to say he’s made at least 2 million and possibly more.
An example as to why: A developer has 1000 supporters and offers 1$/5$10$ tiers, the statistical tool calculates the probabilites how many of those 1000 are using the 1$/5$/10$ option and generates high/low estimates. The next day he adds a 50$ and a 100$ option, his income doesn't change by a cent, but the high estimate will completely ballon out of control as it shifts supporters from lower tier to higher tier options and by taking low+high/2 the resulting simple average will have so much uncertainty that it no longer has any merit.
I know you weren't complaining and I have no idea how much he has really made either, guessing at a gross income, without enough data is incredible difficult and that doesn't even adress that people usually ignore fee's or costs.
He most certainly made a huge pile of money, but no, it's neither fair nor safe that he made at least 2 Million. Fair and most of all safe would be :"Not accounting for his costs and given an average patreon count of x, he made at least x times lowest tier times 24 in the last 2 years."