last update took 14-15 months i think, guess it wont be less then that this time, so May or something
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grarg
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When is Episode 12 coming out?
First, we have to project the # of screens.
To do that, we project new timelines for episode 12, by analyzing trends:
*Assume working days are normal at 5 a week, so a normal 5 day work week schedule.
Renders/day shows a declining trend, due to all sorts of$$$$$ Milking reasons.
So let's assume EP 12 follows this trend:
4158 to 5037 = +21.14%
5037 to 5868 = +16.49%
5868 to 7113 = +21.22%
The average (sum/3):
19.6167%
So the potential number of new screens from 7133 (+19.62%) is 8508.335871, or ~8500.
(We're not taking into account other things like animations and coding, QA, testing, etc.; regardless, the total days are the same.)
Now we go back to the actual time episodes took
*Interlude skipped because, yeah, even worse projections with those numbers. Destroyer indeed.
Method 1: Trend of average renders per day
(minus work days, we'll just use straight numbers regardless of workdays minus weekends, as the trend is the same)
Renders/Day rate is:
EP 9: 17.55
EP 10: 16.44
EP 11: 15.60
For whatever Milked reason, DPC is slowing down.
Estimated days using EP 11 rate:
Renders / (renders/day rate) = 8500 / 15.6 = 545 days.
Estimated days using EP10/11 delta = (16.44 - 15.60 = 0.84, thus, 15.60 - 0.84 = 14.76)
Renders / (renders/day rate) = 8500 / 14.76 = 576 days.
***
EP 11 released on March 7, 2025.
Thus if using EP11's trend, the release date is:
September 3rd, 2026
Thus if using EP11/10's delta trend, the release date is:
October 4th, 2026
Method 2: Linear trend (day count)
Looking at the increase in days:
EP 9 to 10 was 70 days (357-287 = 70)
EP 10 to 11 was 99 days (456-357 = 99)
99-77 = 22, or a 22 day increase. Thus, 22 + 99 = 121 days
So, EP 11 at 456 days + 121 days = 577 days
Thus if using linear trend of days, the release date is:
October 5th, 2026
***
Conclusion:
In software dev, we usually account for 10-20% overage (which is when things go boom and more time is needed):
576 times 0.10 = 57.6 days
576 + 57.6 = 633.6 days (634)
Thus:
December 1, 2026
576 times 0.20 = 115.2 days
576 + 115.2 = 691.2 days (691)
Thus:
January 26, 2027
So the range of probable release dates, assuming 8500 new screens (and all other work being equal and accounted for), we have a trend between:
September 3rd 2026
&
January 26th 2027
It's green because of the $$$$$
---
As per an update from DPC in December: EP 12 is at 60% from Dec 10th.
9 months / 0.6 = 15 months projection.
15 months from March 2025 is June 2026
Include 20% overage (Steam issues, balancing, QA testing, bug fixes, things go boom, etc.)
15 months x 0.2 = 3 months
So optimistically:
June 2026
Realistically:
September 2026
For a projection based on animations, go here.
First, we have to project the # of screens.
To do that, we project new timelines for episode 12, by analyzing trends:
| # | Renders | Working days | Renders/day |
| EP 8 | 4158 | 150.71 | 27.59 |
| EP 9 | 5037 | 205 | 24.57 |
| EP 10 | 5868 | 255 | 23.01 |
| EP 11 | 7113 | 325.71 | 21.84 |
Renders/day shows a declining trend, due to all sorts of
So let's assume EP 12 follows this trend:
4158 to 5037 = +21.14%
5037 to 5868 = +16.49%
5868 to 7113 = +21.22%
The average (sum/3):
19.6167%
So the potential number of new screens from 7133 (+19.62%) is 8508.335871, or ~8500.
(We're not taking into account other things like animations and coding, QA, testing, etc.; regardless, the total days are the same.)
Now we go back to the actual time episodes took
| # | Renders | Days |
| EP 4 | 2532 | 148 |
| EP 5 | 2456 | 141 |
| EP 6 | 3336 | 169 |
| EP 7 | 3723 | 162 |
| EP 8 | 4158 | 211 |
| EP 9 | 5037 | 287 |
| EP 10 | 5868 | 357 |
| EP 11 | 7113 | 456 |
*Interlude skipped because, yeah, even worse projections with those numbers. Destroyer indeed.
Method 1: Trend of average renders per day
(minus work days, we'll just use straight numbers regardless of workdays minus weekends, as the trend is the same)
Renders/Day rate is:
EP 9: 17.55
EP 10: 16.44
EP 11: 15.60
For whatever Milked reason, DPC is slowing down.
Estimated days using EP 11 rate:
Renders / (renders/day rate) = 8500 / 15.6 = 545 days.
Estimated days using EP10/11 delta = (16.44 - 15.60 = 0.84, thus, 15.60 - 0.84 = 14.76)
Renders / (renders/day rate) = 8500 / 14.76 = 576 days.
***
EP 11 released on March 7, 2025.
Thus if using EP11's trend, the release date is:
September 3rd, 2026
Thus if using EP11/10's delta trend, the release date is:
October 4th, 2026
Method 2: Linear trend (day count)
Looking at the increase in days:
EP 9 to 10 was 70 days (357-287 = 70)
EP 10 to 11 was 99 days (456-357 = 99)
99-77 = 22, or a 22 day increase. Thus, 22 + 99 = 121 days
So, EP 11 at 456 days + 121 days = 577 days
Thus if using linear trend of days, the release date is:
October 5th, 2026
***
Conclusion:
In software dev, we usually account for 10-20% overage (which is when things go boom and more time is needed):
576 times 0.10 = 57.6 days
576 + 57.6 = 633.6 days (634)
Thus:
December 1, 2026
576 times 0.20 = 115.2 days
576 + 115.2 = 691.2 days (691)
Thus:
January 26, 2027
So the range of probable release dates, assuming 8500 new screens (and all other work being equal and accounted for), we have a trend between:
September 3rd 2026
&
January 26th 2027
It's green because of the $$$$$
---
As per an update from DPC in December: EP 12 is at 60% from Dec 10th.
9 months / 0.6 = 15 months projection.
15 months from March 2025 is June 2026
Include 20% overage (Steam issues, balancing, QA testing, bug fixes, things go boom, etc.)
15 months x 0.2 = 3 months
So optimistically:
June 2026
Realistically:
September 2026
For a projection based on animations, go here.
Last edited:
Little Penguin
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Badjourasmix
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BadassDolphin
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grarg
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Based on what?
And if that's the case, DPC has been pulling a $$$$$ fast one on everyone for years.
...or, he'll actually pay for help.
Badjourasmix
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The development time has increased for each update so it wouldn't surprise me if it came out around the summer of next year.
maxthruster
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We've done it, folks. We've reached peak reasoning. No one else will ever make a smarter post. Fewer renders per day equals delaying for money, no ifs ands or buts.
Just out of curiosity, oh Mighty Brain-Haver, how does the comparison hold up if your arbitrarily selected singular metric is, say, number of words per update or complexity of features such as freeroams and minigames?
Darkwen
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would be nice both 9 and 10 came out the same month .. i think .. its been a while so would be nice if 11 and 12 came out the same month or close to it. that said not getting my hopes up and sticking with December 2026. im staying with it til there a release date
grarg
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In comparison to ...? What "arbitrarily selected singular metric"?
Whatever DPC did between releases -- +1 free roam than before, +2 mini-games, etc. -- those episodes came out.
A trend is a series of observations of the past that forms a pattern; we use that, get it's average, determine a general direction, and simply add it to project the future.
maxthruster
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You chose to analyze based on renders produced - and only renders produced - in each update. Deliberately ignoring writing, coding, branching, animation, and other aspects. Because surely these things, which are only becoming more complex as time goes on and the game's branches fracture further and further, don't take any development time at all, I suppose. I get that not all of them are quantifiable, but come on, man. That's basic shit.
- Jun 14, 2020
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And that's the problem. The release times increased when DPC went nuts with his fucking free roams and most of all the tons of animations. Especially since he's doing 60fps animations.
grarg
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Trends don't care about how the sausage was made. Or that it's even a sausage.
I came to ~8500 as a projection of how many renders there may be in the future -- which again, is based off the increase in previous renders.
And even if it did require other factors you think of, regardless, the time to completion, or total days between release dates, would be the same.
Truly, we can add up all those variables per episode, (e.g. EP2 2 free roams, EP3 5 free roams, etc.) and find a new metric; but the total days would still be the same.
grarg
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What problem exactly?
The time to completion is always the same. You could argue a ratio between free-roams / days, or (free-roams + mini-games) / days, and get a new pattern. But the historical total days between releases is always the same.
It does not matter what the numerator is, or how many variables it's composed of. Because we have a hard coded time constant.
maxthruster
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I think you're missing the point wildly.
Yes, obviously, the amount of days between releases is the same no matter what. But you're measuring how fast his progress is based solely on the renders completed in that time, using that data to not only make estimates about the next update's release but also claims about the work ethic.
My point is that the renders are not the only things being done during that time. If indeed there were separate people for writing, rendering, animation and other aspects of the game, that would be a relevant metric for the productivity of that specific team member. But it isn't. It's one guy doing it all by itself.
Don't get me wrong, the data on render growth is pretty fascinating, and I enjoy seeing it laid out so nicely. But it doesn't tell the full story and you're treating this one singular plot graph like a workplace evaluation, conveniently leaving out several other factors in the exponential growth of the development time. It's not a bad way to estimate how many static renders we'll have in the next update, and maybe you'll be correct, but it's a bad way to extrapolate the release dates, and a bad way to estimate "work ethic," which you seem so dead set on doing.
- Jun 14, 2020
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Yeah, I can see that.
But the amount of still renders aren't the problem. Last time DPC was stating for weeks his update is ready and he's waiting for the finish of his animations in queue. Sure, no one has to believe his words. We can't prove them anyway. But personally I don't think he was lying there. So, if you want to make guesses you should do it on his animations, not his still renders.
Darkwen
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Should be noted DPC has said no new mini games so already part of the above guess should be thrown out.
There always been one thing that slows things down, animations.
Renders he can make pretty fast and if you take ep7 and 8 and combine the renders count it is bigger then ep11 and was made about 2 and haft months faster
grarg
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Who cares about renders? To me, that's an easily accessible variable. I could've used animations, licensed music, sound effects (well not really) etc. Of course, I think renders are the most accurate for a Ren'Py production, including this one.
But forget the nature of the project for a moment.
How do you figure out how long the next episode of something comes out?
Answer: you find a trend of time. How long did it take before? And before that? etc.
That's it.
And even then, the window is several months (as I accounted for overage). If I went crazy with multiple variables as you say, it'll still useless, since no matter how DPC made stuff/whatever he made/added more this or less of that, it still took X amount of time. Which is all I'm looking to project.
maxthruster
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Then why did you even bother calculating the difference in renders from episode to episode in the first place? If all you cared about was extrapolating time you could easily have just gone with the date analysis you did in your second calculation. Why bother with the pretense of calculating how many renders a day he made in each episode except to call him a bum for not working faster?
Darkwen
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should never go off renders there just one factor that matters the animations