So probably ~50% of the way there. So Spring 2026 is the likeliest release period which isn't too bad IMO.
Obviously it depends on how many of the "big" scenes they've done, but given the spread I guess they've done the "all paths" stuff first and are filling in from there.
No, not 50%
Animation queue is pretty much the only factor that matters.
And he has done 40-45%. So... we are at 40% not 50. All the other work is done AROUND the animation render queue. Its the sole timekeeper for the whole DEV cycle of an episode.
You have to add 3-4 weeks on top of that for the work after the episode is finished... like beta testing, setting everything up for the release, steamrelease will come too cause the season will be complete and so on...
So yeah, if DPCs says that the animations are about 40-45% done, take the lower number (cause he adds animations on top of that anyways... he always adds stuff), and keep another month in the back of your head, and you can roughly estimate a release date. That said... 6 Months DEV cycle already, roughly 40% done, so... at least 8 months to go until release + maybe another month for fine tuning ect. With 9 months from now we could be pretty close to the actual date. So... maybe between June and July... but that would be a little optimistic... i would still stick with august at this point, on the little pessimistic side maybe september... july would be a positive surprise.
The graph showing is something new, but it doesnt show us how much work is acutally left. Cause we dont know how complex the scenes are he has left, or if there is a big free roam to be done and so on... big scenes and big free rorams take a lot of time to create, but dont take "more" time in the timeline of the episode itself. The graph shows us just the planned "timeline" of the episode, not the overall work of this DEV cycle. Usually the scenes near the end of an episode are the really large ones. Like a big party and/or big lewd scenes, and of course the final scene itself which are most of the time big ones too concluded with a bigger cinematic too.
So i would say, the big red parts left in this graph alone will take the same time to be finished like all the green parts together at this point. And i will not be that far off with that.
*edit* oh and everyone should keep in mind, that DPC already rendered a good bunch of animations before episode 11 was released to get a headstart for the episode 12 DEV cycle... so its actually not only 6 months of development so far for this episode, its more like 8 months already.
