I think about Josephine and Valerie is already pretty clear tho, one of the husband is dead nonetheless and the other one didn't care at all about anything other than court matter, so I suppose 99% they already in the MC's hands. Also about Lockhart himself, if you already have an agreement with him to not touch Elin, I also think 99% she's already in MC hands nonetheless, unless you give a wrong impression to her and make a negative points towards either love or power path which possibly gone wrong.
About Arcadia's path, I think I slightly agree with
n00bPanda, although there are also possibility for Alaina's path since she's also one of the court member. So chances are pretty high I suppose. Not sure about the relationship towards Alaina and the knight's guard alongside her that we saw in one of the premonition at the forest. If they're lovers, might be challenging to get her, if not 85-99% she's possible to be inside the harem.