Well the way i see it is if tomorrow this thread is deleted and LiL is banned from F95 then Selebus will hardly lose anything. The new people that discover the game today on F95 have little incentive to actually subscribe considering they get (almost) everything at the same time as the subs.
He will lose the largest current and historic source of his subscribers. That doesn't mean he will lose those subscribers who came from here, it means he will shut off the well that he pumped them out of - the biggest well he has, has ever had, and will likely ever have. Other developers have achieved insane success even when their content consistently leaks, so I'm not sure why this game is the exception. More on this below.
Also Sel is already earning more than enough to work on the game full time so that's not a reason to sub either.
The bad blood between F95 and Sel may also deter some people.
Exactly. Why continue to support a guy well past a comfortable wage with all of this other stuff going on? More on this below.
On the flip side, the continuing existence of this thread may cause people to reconsider their subscription for the same reasons.
Again, it certainly hasn't worked this way for other developers. More on this below.
So yeah basically i'm arguing that even though X% of the current subs are subs thanks to F95 they are not staying subs thanks to F95 and therefore from Selebus' point of view this site has outlived its usefulness.
That doesn't seem odd to you? Biggest single source of patrons ever, yet only now can we go fuck ourselves?
Let's contrast his behavior with that of a couple other devs, who are arguably being "harmed" by piracy on this site even more, based on the dollar amount of the tiers of their content that get leaked:
Caribdis
- His $50/month releases leak here within minutes/hours, and it's been this way for as long as I can remember
- Most of his other patron content is leaked on other websites
- Has still achieved almost 5000 subs on Patreon and SS despite the games being consistently leaked
- Doesn't like piracy, quietly mutes it in his Discord (fair!) but doesn't go on weird rants about it
- Doesn't talk much here, but still engages positively with the community through reactions
- Mostly just focuses on making banger content, fucking smashes that shit out of the park on every release
- Certified Drama Free Experience(TM)
DrPinkCake
- His $25/mo releases leak here within minutes/hours, and it's been this way for as long as I can remember
- Paywalled status updates and previews are regularly leaked on this site by literally one of his own Discord mods (if you think this is without DPC's knowledge/consent... lol)
- Quietly tries to ban people who share other patron content, but it usually becomes available here too
- Has still achieved 12000+ subs and likely millions worth of sales on Steam, et al. despite the game being consistently leaked
- Hates piracy and hates this place but doesn't seem to dwell on it and still engages with the community by allowing his status updates to be leaked, why? Maybe because he realizes that the positives of engaging his large audience here outweigh the negatives of piracy. Even to DPC, who isn't even close to reliant on this place for most of his support, this place hasn't outlived its usefulness. Why?
- Mostly just focuses on making banger content, wildly succeeds based on sales metrics alone whether you like the game or not
Selly
- His $5/mo releases leak here within minutes/hours, and this only started in the past several months
- His vast library of custom renders, worth far more than any number of Care Packages IMO, have not leaked here or anywhere else AFAIK
- Has still achieved 1300+ subs for an extremely niche game of inconsistent quality
- Absolutely unhinged off-topic vitriol in his official Discord addressing piracy and other personal grievances
- Absolutely unhinged off-topic vitriol
in-game addressing piracy and other personal grievances
- At least keeps it away from his Subscribestar, I guess
- Has mostly focused on making banger content in the past, but within the last few days his progress tracker reads all goose eggs despite religiously following this thread, coordinating hate raids, and writing long rants
I talked about this in the last round of discussions, but with crowdfunding, people aren't paying for content on a transactional basis. 2 weeks, even 3 months worth of updates on a game that will be worth $20 when it's finished isn't worth $5, much less per month. Nor are the CP, nor are even the custom renders. It certainly all makes for a compelling package when you're looking to become a patron if you want to support the game, but you have to want to support the game and by extension, its creator.
People support creators
they like whose content
they also like. It's an irrational economic transaction, not even akin to angel investment given the only ROI in the future is seeing the project completed, which patrons attribute personal value to.
There's a way out of this. There's a way to go back to the halcyon days of uninterrupted growth and positive community engagement. All it involves is chilling the fuck out and making good content. Hopefully the (now extended) break will provide that for him.
