My question is: how did they not know that ahead of time and see that coming?
They weren't given a choice.
Remember when Bella Thorne blew up OnlyFans and made more money in a day than most of OF makes in a month combined?
There were a lot of chargebacks because she promised "nudes" and gave them handbra pics.
So that's a ton of transactions, followed the next day by a ton of transaction reversals.
That's considered suspicious activity, and it got the payment processors anxious. Not too long after that, ** was found on PornHub, and that put the processors on the offensive, and they went after OnlyFans even though OF is probably the single platform that goes out of its way to be FOSTA/SESTA compliant.
Forced with changing their terms of service as VISA's whims or going crypto-only, they chose the former. Unlike PH, OF was still small enough that going crypto-only would have been suicide. Honeslty, they knew when they made that decision that either one could wind up going poorly. So they threw a hail mary.
"Hey, we changed our terms of service as you requested, and the models are leaving in droves to smaller platforms that aren't FOSTA/SESTA compliant, have fun with that"
It worked. The payment processors let them change their terms of service back. At least for now. The damage is done to OF's reputation, but at least they're still in business.
Which runs afoul of Patreon's "If ANYTHING you do ANYWHERE offends us, we will shut you down" policy.
It does. As with most of these games, they're trying their best to fly under the radar. Some of them fly too high and get shut down. But most of the cosplayers on Patreon don't offer full nudes on ANY platform, so they're not even really at risk.
The issue is that the problem is going to dog us until it is somehow dealt with- if it even can be.
That would require the underpinninig laws to change. It's the laws that drive everything else.