Yes, that baby was cot laughing either...
Yes, that baby was cot laughing either...
I agree with the stance and seeing how she tries to break it off but you still get the has_kids and one of the few forced creampies.I've probably said something like that, but it's a popular stance.
Well the thing is that the deciding factor has always been the renders. Everything else is stuff he does while he waits on the PCs to do the rendering. It doesn't matter what else he was doing. So long as the machines kept rendering, their pace is what counts. If those machines have been busy with no down time since mid February that is effectively how long it has taken to get to 50%. About 8 months. And 8 months from mid October would be mid June. After that there would still be testing which would push it to July at the absolute earliest. Slipping to September is only 2 months and would just be a straight up more realistic estimate that accounted for potential problems like one of his PCs calling it quits.If you are genuinely interested a proper breakdown of my thinking and assumptions on this I'll give you one:
Episode 11 released March 7th. In the status update for the week of October 18-24 DPC stated they felt they were likely over the halfway point. That is approximately seven months, which is something you also referred to it as while I decided to discount it to possibly being only six months of actual development time given all the non-Episode 12 stuff they've done (Q&A, store page stuff, pc upgrades etc) as well as that they probably weren't immediately 100% speed in terms of production and still spent some time of "pre-production" activities such as asset discovery/creation. So that's where my estimate of it taking them 6-7 months to reach the halfway stage comes from.
So applying that estimate from mid-October forwards gives an admittedly quite unlikely "if everything went completely to plan and to current pace" earliest possible release date of end of April. That's also why I said a September or "Autumn" release date would be a drift of 5-6 months from current pace, which is why I think it's pessimistic.
Personally I think the most likely release period is that set out in mpa's BigTable, which is May through July.
Why are you so pessimistic?Well the thing is that the deciding factor has always been the renders. Everything else is stuff he does while he waits on the PCs to do the rendering. It doesn't matter what else he was doing. So long as the machines kept rendering, their pace is what counts. If those machines have been busy with no down time since mid February that is effectively how long it has taken to get to 50%. About 8 months. And 8 months from mid October would be mid June. After that there would still be testing which would push it to July at the absolute earliest. Slipping to September is only 2 months and would just be a straight up more realistic estimate that accounted for potential problems like one of his PCs calling it quits.
But the straight up mistake you make is the 5-6 months to September. If the release gets pushed to September 1st it has slipped to September. In order to have slipped a full 6 months the expectation would have been 1st of March. But maybe you meant that as slipping further than just September 1st. Still if you meant to suggest the end of April as the earliest release date slipping to early September is only a bit over 4 months. Any later release date slipping to September 1st is less than 4 months. This can't be called anything else than a mistake.
And when you wouldn't own up to that mistake everything else you said became suspect as you apparently didn't care if it was wrong.
We must believe that DPC will speed up the work and do his best.
From his great love for the F95zone fan community.![]()
People also seem to forget that the current trend is previous Dev Cycle + 3 months, which would put the current trajectory at 18 months, which is also September, so September will always be the realistic guess. -Slipping to September is only 2 months and would just be a straight up more realistic estimate that accounted for potential problems like one of his PCs calling it quits.
About this whole topic, there is one key detail to remember.Well the thing is that the deciding factor has always been the renders. Everything else is stuff he does while he waits on the PCs to do the rendering. It doesn't matter what else he was doing. So long as the machines kept rendering, their pace is what counts. If those machines have been busy with no down time since mid February that is effectively how long it has taken to get to 50%. About 8 months. And 8 months from mid October would be mid June. After that there would still be testing which would push it to July at the absolute earliest. Slipping to September is only 2 months and would just be a straight up more realistic estimate that accounted for potential problems like one of his PCs calling it quits.
But the straight up mistake you make is the 5-6 months to September. If the release gets pushed to September 1st it has slipped to September. In order to have slipped a full 6 months the expectation would have been 1st of March. But maybe you meant that as slipping further than just September 1st. Still if you meant to suggest the end of April as the earliest release date slipping to early September is only a bit over 4 months. Any later release date slipping to September 1st is less than 4 months. This can't be called anything else than a mistake.
And when you wouldn't own up to that mistake everything else you said became suspect as you apparently didn't care if it was wrong.
Basically this, an August release is fairly optimistic knowing DPC's past trends.People also seem to forget that the current trend is previous Dev Cycle + 3 months, which would put the current trajectory at 18 months, which is also September, so September will always be the realistic guess. -
While yes, DPC's newer rigs might be able to render a bit faster, we don't really have enough data to suggest what the time save here is, but we do have a bit of information... When DPC dropped the last percentage way back on Sept 12 with that silly graph that showed nothing, he estimated animations alone were at 40 - 45% Its taken 6 weeks to get that to roughly 55% - So the current pace is roughly 10% every 6 weeks for the animations alone... we need another 45%, which based on the previous mentioned limited information would need anywhere between 54 weeks if we are take it at at a low 5% every 6 weeks or 27 weeks if we take the quoted 10%... to be fair, given he used rough estimates we should take the middle ground of this number about 40 weeks, which from the 24th October puts us at the 31st July - we could perhaps +/- a few weeks either side here, but the using the trends of previous releases and the very limited information we have been given does not suggest a Pace that would lead to an April release, but at best an August release.
DPC personally beat the hope out of me after the EP 9 cycle.Why are you so pessimistic?
Why are you making gloomy predictions that inspire sadness?
We need to believe in the best.
We must believe that DPC will speed up the work and do his best.
From his great love for the F95zone fan community.![]()
Could be Vinnie or could be Caleb... ...but, yeah, bringing back Vinnie ties in the whole DiK-drama (Nick, etc.) so you might be on to something; since the MC thinks Vinnie is using a stage pistol when Vinnie aims at him the MC likely won't recognize it as a genuine threat so...Vinnie is going to crash the NYE party and someone's getting shot for the season ending cliffhanger. Thoughts?
Very likely.Vinnie is going to crash the NYE party and someone's getting shot for the season ending cliffhanger. Thoughts?
04/09/2026, mark my words friends.
No, it's called an assumption on your end, which you admit to ("maybe you meant that as slipping further than just September 1st").But the straight up mistake you make is the 5-6 months to September. If the release gets pushed to September 1st it has slipped to September. In order to have slipped a full 6 months the expectation would have been 1st of March. But maybe you meant that as slipping further than just September 1st. Still if you meant to suggest the end of April as the earliest release date slipping to early September is only a bit over 4 months. Any later release date slipping to September 1st is less than 4 months. This can't be called anything else than a mistake.
04/09/2026, mark my words friends.
You're forgetting though that DPC has a habit of saying they've created however many nominal amount of animations and then they merge them and suddenly they have a completely different number of animations. It's basically a completely useless measure until they say they've finished creating them.DPC only useful number to see how close we really are was in the 20/06 report where he said he had 100+ animations rendered.
We don't know the final number, but a ~20% increase from last time is a reasoable guess based on past trends.
So that would puts us on 480 total animations for EP 12, with a 100 done by june. If we are lucky, the number should be 200 now since the number of rendered animations was 54 in the 11/04 report.