That's really not a good way to approach stories btw.
Because when a story wants to feel believable it has to adhere to the problem that very few people can stand the extra energy needed to act in a way that is inconsistent with their internal state, all except the most manipulative and Machiavellian people.
The second is that you are basically saying you can look into LM's mind and predict the story better than what is written in text or subtext by way of extrapolation. Which is just hogwash.
So your argument boils down to Conrad's characterization up until now being a red herring for the sake of a twist that has no evidence beyond extrapolation. But such an argument is fundamentally a positivistic one and just because it's a logical chain doesn't mean that it's real, because all logic relies on axioms that you have to just accept as real.
And if you think you got a better read on Conrad than everyone else, that's your prerogative to think, I guess.
I'm not saying I'm looking into the author's mind.
My commentary is analysis and logic.
Have you played chess? Have you ever planned anything in your life?
Then you should know that a good plan should be based on the worst-case scenario.
A good plan should eliminate the worst-case scenario.
The worst-case scenario for Elis regarding Conrad is that his playing the good uncle is just a facade, and he also desires the throne like his brothers.
And purely mathematically, he will be in a position to undermine Alice's power and legitimacy when he finds evidence.
Logically, he already threatens Elis power simply by possessing such information—that Elis is illegitimate.
(Unlike Alaina, who cannot reveal this information without drowning herself and the elves.)
Therefore, killing Conrad is simply logical.
And if you think you got a better read on Conrad than everyone else, that's your prerogative to think, I guess.
You don't get it. I don't care whether I read Conrad better or worse than everyone else.
(Obviously, the author will give us a development where Conrad will be both a traitor and an ally, just like Alaina)
If you don't kill Conrad after all this, then you're a naive who closes your eyes to the worst-case scenario and believes the best, that Conrad really is a good guy.
Yes, you're right, "just because it's a logical chain doesn't mean that it's real"
Well said, indeed.
But for me, it's enough that it's logical and rational, meaning Conrad's skull gets to know the cup.
In any case, it's just a game.
In my first playthrough, I want to make the same decisions I would if I were the protagonist.
And I'd be guided by logic, not by the concepts of writing an entertaining story.