I'll add into the speculation... just for fun. Though I'll go back further than most will go in regards to the story. All the way before the beginning of the events that have transpired since the king's death.
The Crone is the start of it all. Far too often she has shown a connection to the Royal Court and a desire for power, especially magical. Whatever her appearance she's obviously capable of hiding or changing it at will via magic. She has also shown a willingness to kill, as with indicated by the old Truthsayer, your mentor. At this point it shouldn't be too far of a stretch to solve that murder. To borrow an old saying “Poison is a woman's weapon.” That is to say, it doesn't require brute force or as much effort as a direct confrontation. Nor is it as easy to trace back in many instances. Primrose was easily framed for the death of Marek and would have been sentenced if not for the intervention of the MC. As for her motivations, the old Truthsayer would be far less likely to not have moral issues over the MC's use of this powerful magic. The Crone could give a shit less about whom you do or don't corrupt and pervert on your rise to power. Their pawns and acceptable casualties on the way to something else.
The Crone enlisted either the Princess or her sister Lilith in the ways of magic in effort to further her own power. Just as her statements of what she could have accomplished if she had the spellbook the MC gives her previously. And she fucked up beyond her wildest dreams. Three pieces of information are important at this point; the legend of Samarra's people, the Fae Genocide Vision, and the old Truthsayer's vision of human extinction. Either the Princess was lured to the roof and Lilith was killed while the demon transferred itself to the Princess, or the demon sought to break the Princess' will by killing Lilith. The original Selena is trapped inside her own mind. I suspect that it was the possessed Selena that killed her father in order to position itself into a place of power in preparation for conquest.
I think the Crone is actually either the real Princess Selena, or is the sister and has been cursed, or is hiding her identity by using the shapeshifting magic.
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